Industry group, 4911
Postal Service (Federal Government)
618,900 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $65,730 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 121 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 13%
- 3%
- 84%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 9% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 9%. Today's estimate: 10%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 13 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Postal Service Clerks | 73,720 | 29% | 44 million | $62K |
| Postal Service Mail Carriers | 328,820 | 4% | 24 million | $61K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 17,950 | 35% | 13 million | $88K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 5,710 | 63% | 7.5 million | $70K |
| Postmasters and Mail Superintendents | 13,810 | 19% | 5.5 million | $97K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 7,780 | 14% | 2.2 million | $70K |
| Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators | 105,200 | 1% | 1.5 million | $58K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 2,710 | 27% | 1.5 million | $97K |
| Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technologists and Technicians | 3,910 | 17% | 1.4 million | $86K |
| Light Truck Drivers | 4,090 | 11% | 944,299 | $62K |
| Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 13,610 | 3% | 849,264 | $62K |
| Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 6,990 | 6% | 828,738 | $73K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 96 smaller jobs (28,770 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 100% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain accurate records of deliveries.Postal Service Mail Carriers17 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete forms regarding changes of address, or theft or loss of mail, or for special services such as registered or priority mail.Postal Service Clerks9.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide assistance to the public in complying with federal regulations of Postal Service and other federal agencies.Postal Service Clerks9.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Respond to complaints regarding mail theft, delivery problems, and lost or damaged mail, filling out forms and making appropriate referrals for investigation.Postal Service Clerks8.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Answer customers' questions about postal services and regulations.Postal Service Mail Carriers5.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Order retail items and other supplies for office use.Postal Service Clerks4.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Answer questions regarding mail regulations and procedures, postage rates, and post office boxes.Postal Service Clerks4.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Rent post office boxes to customers.Postal Service Clerks3.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare and submit detailed and summary reports of post office activities to designated supervisors.Postmasters and Mail Superintendents3.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Research, compile, and prepare reports, manuals, correspondence, or other information required by management or governmental agencies.First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers3.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works