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Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

Diagnose, adjust, repair, or overhaul automotive vehicles.

704,640 people do this job in the US. $50,620 a year.

now
4%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 4%
  • 1%
  • 95%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 4% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 4%. Today's estimate: 4%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 2% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 3% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 3% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 3% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 3% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 4% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 4% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 30 tasks from .

TaskKind
Repair or replace parts such as pistons, rods, gears, valves, and bearings.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 12%1 work day3.3 h to 2.1 work daysStays with people
Repair or rebuild transmissions.Done more than monthly by most who do it.11%1 work day5 h to 2.1 work daysStays with people
Rebuild parts, such as crankshafts and cylinder blocks.Done more than monthly by most who do it.9%1 work day3.3 h to 2.5 work daysStays with people
Tear down, repair, and rebuild faulty assemblies, such as power systems, steering systems, and linkages.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 5%3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 hStays with people
Repair and service air conditioning, heating, engine cooling, and electrical systems.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 5%2.1 h50 min to 5 hStays with people
Perform routine and scheduled maintenance services, such as oil changes, lubrications, and tune-ups.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 4%50 min25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Retrofit vehicle fuel systems with aftermarket products, such as vapor transfer devices, evaporation control devices, swirlers, lean burn devices, and friction reduction devices, to enhance combustion and fuel efficiency.Done more than monthly by most who do it.4%3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 hStays with people
Overhaul or replace carburetors, blowers, generators, distributors, starters, and pumps.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 4%2.1 h1.3 h to 3.3 hStays with people
Rewire ignition systems, lights, and instrument panels.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 3%2.1 h50 min to 5 hStays with people
Tune automobile engines to ensure proper and efficient functioning.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 3%1.3 h38 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Diagnose and replace or repair engine management systems or related sensors for flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) with ignition timing, fuel rate, alcohol concentration, or air-to-fuel ratio malfunctions.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 3%1.3 h38 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Repair, reline, replace, and adjust brakes.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 3%1.3 h38 min to 2.5 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.