Industry group, 4851
Urban Transit Systems
47,340 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $59,940 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 16 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 22%
- 4%
- 74%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 17%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 30 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity | 27,240 | 11% | 6.2 million | $58K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 1,150 | 80% | 1.9 million | $51K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 910 | 64% | 1.2 million | $45K |
| Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs | 2,050 | 28% | 1.2 million | $49K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 550 | 51% | 581,153 | $63K |
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 340 | 74% | 520,499 | $38K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand | 550 | 44% | 503,361 | $63K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants | 550 | 37% | 419,849 | $63K |
| Office Clerks, General | 340 | 54% | 384,010 | $48K |
| General and Operations Managers | 650 | 23% | 308,258 | $94K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 550 | 27% | 304,305 | $82K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 180 | 78% | 290,535 | $48K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 54 smaller jobs (2,190 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity2.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Report delays or accidents.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity2.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Read maps to plan bus routes.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance704,776 hours100% of the task within reach
- Oversee all communications within specifically assigned territories.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance477,626 hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor personnel or equipment locations and utilization to coordinate service and schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance320,097 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs302,275 hours100% of the task within reach
- Arrange to pick up particular customers or groups on a regular schedule.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs270,466 hours100% of the task within reach
- Schedule or dispatch workers, work crews, equipment, or service vehicles to appropriate locations, according to customer requests, specifications, or needs, using radios or telephones.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance248,409 hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend and implement measures to improve worker motivation, work methods, or customer services.First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants214,037 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- School and Employee Bus Transportation216,510 people18% now, 20% by 2028
- Taxi and Limousine Service117,670 people27% now, 40% by 2028
- Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation111,560 people30% now, 34% by 2028
- Charter Bus Industry24,070 people18% now, 22% by 2028
- Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation15,360 people20% now, 24% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works