Industry group, 4855
Charter Bus Industry
24,070 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $54,300 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 7.7 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 17%
- 14%
- 69%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 13% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 23,260 people in jobs so far, 97% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 3.3 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 4.2 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 3 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 8%
- 9%
- 6%
- 8%
- 69%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 23,260 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft19,667 (85%)
- Judgment where errors are severe19,140 (82%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself2,733 (12%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts1,910 (8%)
- Running AI inside the business systems1,650 (7%)
- The conversations1,170 (5%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization150 (1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 16%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 75% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 62% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 10% in a purpose-built cell, 44% in a structured facility, 7% in any setting. 1.20 of 3.
- Not physical 25%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 10%
- In a structured facility 44%
- In any setting 7%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 18 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity | 13,070 | 7% | 2 million | $48K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 580 | 73% | 878,260 | $49K |
| Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs | 2,380 | 13% | 658,403 | $42K |
| General and Operations Managers | 650 | 45% | 608,404 | $82K |
| Office Clerks, General | 440 | 56% | 517,088 | $42K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 420 | 59% | 512,804 | $55K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 200 | 88% | 366,496 | $53K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 210 | 59% | 256,403 | $47K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 170 | 64% | 227,718 | $39K |
| Bus Drivers, School | 770 | 10% | 166,566 | $53K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators | 177 | 45% | 164,199 | $75K |
| Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers | 200 | 32% | 133,124 | $90K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 15 smaller jobs (1,060 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity1.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare daily work and run schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance355,454 hours100% of the task within reach
- Report delays or accidents.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity312,852 hours30% of the task within reach
- Read maps to plan bus routes.Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity261,254 hours50% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel179,429 hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete accident reports when necessary.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs171,977 hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor personnel or equipment locations and utilization to coordinate service and schedules.Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance161,440 hours100% of the task within reach
- Arrange to pick up particular customers or groups on a regular schedule.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs125,602 hours40% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General110,208 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs105,280 hours30% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- School and Employee Bus Transportation216,510 people13% now, 13% by 2028
- Taxi and Limousine Service117,670 people31% now, 36% by 2028
- Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation111,560 people22% now, 23% by 2028
- Urban Transit Systems47,340 people16% now, 18% by 2028
- Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation15,360 people17% now, 18% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Charter Bus Industry is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 16% of the paid hours in Charter Bus Industry are within reach of AI models now and 17% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Charter Bus Industry carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity (13,070 people, 7% of their time, about 2 million hours a year); Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance (580 people, 73% of their time, about 878,259 hours a year); and Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs (2,380 people, 13% of their time, about 658,403 hours a year).
- Which tasks in Charter Bus Industry carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book (Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity, about 1.4 million hours a year); Prepare daily work and run schedules (Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance, about 355,454 hours a year); and Report delays or accidents (Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity, about 312,852 hours a year).
- What would people working in Charter Bus Industry learn first?
- Among the 23,260 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (19,667 people); judgment where errors are severe (19,140 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (2,733 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 83% of their working time stays with people, 12% becomes checking a model's work and 4% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Charter Bus Industry (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 97% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.