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Taxi Drivers

Drive a motor vehicle to transport passengers on an unplanned basis and charge a fare, usually based on a meter.

41,050 people do this job in the US. $42,100 a year.

now
20%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 20%
  • 0%
  • 80%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 20% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 4%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 20%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 1% within reacho1, December 2024: 2% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 4% within reacho3, April 2025: 9% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 11% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 14% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 14% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 16% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 17% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 20% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 20% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 16 tasks from .

TaskKind
Perform minor vehicle repairs, such as cleaning spark plugs, or take vehicles to mechanics for servicing.18%38 min17 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Vacuum and clean interiors and wash and polish exteriors of automobiles.18%38 min17 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Complete accident reports when necessary.15%33 min17 min to 1.3 h100%Half by now
Drive taxicabs or privately owned vehicles to transport passengers.12%25 min13 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Perform routine vehicle maintenance, such as regulating tire pressure and adding gasoline, oil, and water.8%17 min8 min to 25 minStays with people
Follow relevant safety regulations and state laws governing vehicle operation, and ensure that passengers follow safety regulations.4%8 min4 min to 17 minStays with people
Pick up passengers at prearranged locations, at taxi stands, or by cruising streets in high-traffic areas.4%8 min2 min to 21 minStays with people
Provide passengers with assistance entering and exiting vehicles, and help them with any luggage.4%8 min3 min to 21 minStays with people
Report to taxicab services or garages to receive vehicle assignments.4%8 min4 min to 17 minStays with people
Test vehicle equipment, such as lights, brakes, horns, or windshield wipers, to ensure proper operation.4%8 min4 min to 17 minStays with people
Collect fares or vouchers from passengers, and make change or issue receipts as necessary.3%7 min2 min to 17 minStays with people
Notify dispatchers or company mechanics of vehicle problems.3%7 min3 min to 13 min100%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).