School Bus Monitors
In short: today's best AI models could do about 9% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 91% of the time, stays with people.
Maintain order among students on a school bus. Duties include helping students safely board and exit and communicating behavioral problems. May perform pretrip and posttrip inspections and prepare for and assist in emergency evacuations.
78,420 people do this job in the US. $35,100 a year.
Reviewed on October 1, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on4 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people36 h
School Bus Monitors, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 4 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 36 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Submit trip reports (about 4 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 0%
- 9%
- 4%
- 47%
- 40%
Anthropic's data does not cover this job.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 9% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 9%. Today's estimate: 9%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 404th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 18 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.011% to 0.011% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 18 |
| Released March 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 18 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 18 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 18 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 18 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 386 of 434 | 1 of 18 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 404 of 447 | 1 of 18 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 39% of this job's working time as physical work. For 3% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 3% in a structured facility. 0.05 of 3, the 577th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 61%
- No robot shown 37%
- In a structured facility 3%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
91% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Keep order on the bus, the in-person work, 33%
- Clean the bus, the hands-on work, 10%
- Direct boarding and exiting, the in-person work, 7%
- Help children with needs board, the hands-on work, 6%
- Talk with parents about behavior, the conversation, 5%
- Defuse altercations, the in-person work, 5%
What becomes checking the machine
No desk work within reach by then in tasks where a mistake costs something. Another 9% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
What to learn
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- The conversations. About 51% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- The hands-on craft. About 40% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 18 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monitor the conduct of students to maintain discipline and safety.Being present with the children, watching and dealing with them.Done daily by most who do it. | 33% | 38 min17 min to 1.3 h | In person 60%, hands-on 40% | Stays with people |
| Clean school bus interiors by picking up waste, wiping down windows, or vacuuming.Picking up, wiping and vacuuming.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Write and submit reports that include data such as the number of passengers or trips, hours worked, mileage driven, or fuel consumed.The daily figures entered.Done daily by most who do it. | 9% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Direct students boarding and exiting the school bus.At the door with the children.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 8 min3 min to 21 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Assist children with disabilities or children with psychological, emotional, or behavioral issues with boarding and exiting the school bus.Hands-on help at the steps.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 8 min3 min to 25 min | Hands-on 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Talk to children's parents or guardians about problematic behaviors, emotional or developmental problems, or related issues.Conversations with parents, by phone and at the stop.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 5% | 13 min4 min to 33 min | Conversation 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Prevent or defuse altercations between students.Stepping in between the children.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 8 min2 min to 25 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Direct students evacuating the bus during safety drills.Directing the children in the drill.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Evacuate students from the school bus in emergency situations.Getting the children off and away.Done yearly or less by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 13 min4 min to 38 min | In person 50%, hands-on 50% | Stays with people |
| Operate a wheelchair lift to load or unload wheelchairs.Running the lift.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 7 min3 min to 17 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Respond to students' questions, requests, or complaints.On the bus with the children.Done daily by most who do it. | 3% | 4 min1 min to 13 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Buckle seatbelts or fasten wheelchair tie-down straps to secure passengers for transportation.Belts and tie-downs fastened by hand.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 4 min2 min to 10 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of School Bus Monitors is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 9% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 9% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of School Bus Monitors come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Submit trip reports (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of School Bus Monitors stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Keep order on the bus; Clean the bus; and Direct boarding and exiting. Together such tasks are about 91% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should School Bus Monitors learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are judgment where errors are severe; the conversations; and the hands-on craft. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 91% of the working time stays with people, 0% becomes checking a model's work and 9% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of School Bus Monitors?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks, the 404th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 18 tasks appeared. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of School Bus Monitors?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 39% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 3% of the working time, 3% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.05 of 3. One example: Rome Metro Line C Full Automation System (driverless metro with Automatic Platform Doors) for "open and close doors". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 18 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on October 1, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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