Bakers
Mix and bake ingredients to produce breads, rolls, cookies, cakes, pies, pastries, or other baked goods.
236,200 people do this job in the US. $37,160 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 38%
- 3%
- 59%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 5%. Today's estimate: 8%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 18 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Develop new recipes for baked goods.Done daily by most who do it. | 33% | 6.7 h3.3 h to 1.7 work days | 10%Half by Apr 2027 | |
| Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 8% | 33 min17 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 6% | 13 min4 min to 25 min | Stays with people | |
| Roll, knead, cut, or shape dough to form sweet rolls, pie crusts, tarts, cookies, or other products.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 1.1 h | Stays with people | |
| Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 5% | 13 min7 min to 33 min | Stays with people | |
| Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 13 min8 min to 25 min | Stays with people | |
| Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 13 min8 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Direct or coordinate bakery deliveries.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 3% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 3% | 10 min4 min to 17 min | Stays with people | |
| Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 3% | 7 min4 min to 13 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Food Batchmakers13% now, 23% by 2028
- Chefs and Head Cooks12% now, 21% by 2028
- Cooks, Restaurant2% now, 2% by 2028
- Food Cooking Machine Operators and Tenders7% now, 7% by 2028
- Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders8% now, 8% by 2028
- Food Preparation Workers3% now, 3% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).