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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Industry group, 7223

Special Food Services

817,540 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $44,110 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
13%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$7.3B

a year: 219 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 18%
  • 14%
  • 67%
1%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 12% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 18% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 13%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 2% within reacho3, April 2025: 4% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 5% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 7% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 7% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 7% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 8% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 12% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 13% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 36 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.

PeoplePay here
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers55,18040%46 million$47K
Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria72,63016%24 million$38K
Fast Food and Counter Workers152,1207%21 million$34K
Food Service Managers17,10036%13 million$79K
Cashiers30,44019%12 million$35K
Food Servers, Nonrestaurant33,21010%7.2 million$36K
Waiters and Waitresses59,1106%7 million$38K
Office Clerks, General5,74054%6.5 million$47K
General and Operations Managers13,40023%6.4 million$91K
Customer Service Representatives4,60064%6.2 million$43K
Chefs and Head Cooks21,91012%5.5 million$71K
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive4,82043%4.3 million$46K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 99 smaller jobs (38,980 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Plan menus that are varied, nutritionally balanced, and appetizing, taking advantage of foods in season and local availability.Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria
    14 million hours100% of the task within reach
  2. Develop departmental objectives, budgets, policies, procedures, and strategies.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    10 million hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Balance receipts and payments in cash registers.Fast Food and Counter Workers
    9.3 million hours50% of the task within reach
  4. Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders
    8.4 million hours50% of the task within reach
  5. Forecast staff, equipment, and supply requirements, based on a master menu.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    7.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Specify food portions and courses, production and time sequences, and workstation and equipment arrangements.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    5.5 million hours80% of the task within reach
  7. Analyze operational problems, such as theft and wastage, and establish procedures to alleviate these problems.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    5.4 million hours70% of the task within reach
  8. Monitor and order supplies or food items, and restock as necessary to maintain inventory.Fast Food and Counter Workers
    5.3 million hours30% of the task within reach
  9. Establish standards for personnel performance and customer service.Food Service Managers
    4.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
  10. Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers
    4.5 million hours100% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Next to this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works