Subsector, 722
Food Services and Drinking Places
12,268,870 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $37,970 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 3.3 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 14%
- 22%
- 65%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 13% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 12,168,726 people in jobs so far, 99% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 1.9 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 1.5 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 463 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 8%
- 6%
- 2%
- 20%
- 65%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 12,168,726 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft10,044,087 (83%)
- The conversations7,995,043 (66%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself2,808,019 (23%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts1,594,097 (13%)
- Judgment where errors are severe817,925 (7%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization400,820 (3%)
- Running AI inside the business systems93,290 (1%)
- Signing off under your license1,470 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 13%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 73% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 69% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 57% in a purpose-built cell, 12% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.83 of 3.
- Not physical 27%
- No robot shown 4%
- In a purpose-built cell 57%
- In a structured facility 12%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 17 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 1,009,330 | 48% | 1 billion | $43K |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 3,351,390 | 7% | 453 million | $31K |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 1,943,380 | 6% | 230 million | $35K |
| Bartenders | 547,090 | 20% | 230 million | $35K |
| Food Service Managers | 189,610 | 50% | 196 million | $65K |
| Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop | 390,670 | 23% | 183 million | $31K |
| General and Operations Managers | 189,320 | 45% | 177 million | $65K |
| Cooks, Restaurant | 1,235,200 | 6% | 154 million | $37K |
| Cashiers | 332,950 | 19% | 128 million | $32K |
| Chefs and Head Cooks | 141,120 | 27% | 80 million | $61K |
| Cooks, Fast Food | 620,270 | 3% | 40 million | $31K |
| Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria | 77,100 | 20% | 33 million | $38K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 151 smaller jobs (592,030 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Balance receipts and payments in cash registers.Fast Food and Counter Workers205 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders201 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Develop departmental objectives, budgets, policies, procedures, and strategies.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers183 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Forecast staff, equipment, and supply requirements, based on a master menu.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers133 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor and order supplies or food items, and restock as necessary to maintain inventory.Fast Food and Counter Workers117 million hours30% of the task within reach
- Prepare checks that itemize and total meal costs and sales taxes.Waiters and Waitresses111 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Specify food portions and courses, production and time sequences, and workstation and equipment arrangements.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers101 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Analyze operational problems, such as theft and wastage, and establish procedures to alleviate these problems.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers99 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Plan, prepare, and deliver meals to individuals with special dietary needs.Fast Food and Counter Workers82 million hours20% of the task within reach
- Write patrons' food orders on order slips, memorize orders, or enter orders into computers for transmittal to kitchen staff.Waiters and Waitresses78 million hours70% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Food Services and Drinking Places is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 13% of the paid hours in Food Services and Drinking Places are within reach of AI models now and 14% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Food Services and Drinking Places carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers (1,009,330 people, 48% of their time, about 1 billion hours a year); Fast Food and Counter Workers (3,351,390 people, 7% of their time, about 453 million hours a year); and Waiters and Waitresses (1,943,380 people, 6% of their time, about 230 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Food Services and Drinking Places carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Balance receipts and payments in cash registers (Fast Food and Counter Workers, about 205 million hours a year); Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar (Bartenders, about 201 million hours a year); and Develop departmental objectives, budgets, policies, procedures, and strategies (First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers, about 183 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Food Services and Drinking Places learn first?
- Among the 12,168,726 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (10,044,087 people); the conversations (7,995,043 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (2,808,019 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 86% of their working time stays with people, 10% becomes checking a model's work and 4% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Food Services and Drinking Places (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 99% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.