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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Subsector, 722

Food Services and Drinking Places

12,268,870 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $37,970 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
11%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$74B

a year: 2.7 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 14%
  • 19%
  • 67%
1%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 10% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 14% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 11%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 1% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 2% within reacho3, April 2025: 4% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 5% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 6% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 6% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 6% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 7% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 10% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 11% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 17 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.

PeoplePay here
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers1,009,33040%848 million$43K
Fast Food and Counter Workers3,351,3907%453 million$31K
Waiters and Waitresses1,943,3806%230 million$35K
Cooks, Restaurant1,235,2006%144 million$37K
Food Service Managers189,61036%144 million$65K
Cashiers332,95019%128 million$32K
Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop390,67012%98 million$31K
General and Operations Managers189,32023%90 million$65K
Bartenders547,0908%89 million$35K
Driver/Sales Workers174,91013%45 million$31K
Cooks, Fast Food620,2703%40 million$31K
Chefs and Head Cooks141,12012%35 million$61K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 151 smaller jobs (592,030 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Balance receipts and payments in cash registers.Fast Food and Counter Workers
    205 million hours50% of the task within reach
  2. Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders
    201 million hours50% of the task within reach
  3. Develop departmental objectives, budgets, policies, procedures, and strategies.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    183 million hours100% of the task within reach
  4. Forecast staff, equipment, and supply requirements, based on a master menu.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    133 million hours100% of the task within reach
  5. Monitor and order supplies or food items, and restock as necessary to maintain inventory.Fast Food and Counter Workers
    117 million hours30% of the task within reach
  6. Prepare checks that itemize and total meal costs and sales taxes.Waiters and Waitresses
    111 million hours100% of the task within reach
  7. Specify food portions and courses, production and time sequences, and workstation and equipment arrangements.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    101 million hours80% of the task within reach
  8. Analyze operational problems, such as theft and wastage, and establish procedures to alleviate these problems.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    99 million hours70% of the task within reach
  9. Plan, prepare, and deliver meals to individuals with special dietary needs.Fast Food and Counter Workers
    82 million hours20% of the task within reach
  10. Write patrons' food orders on order slips, memorize orders, or enter orders into computers for transmittal to kitchen staff.Waiters and Waitresses
    78 million hours70% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Inside this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works