Industry group, 7224
Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)
410,960 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $40,650 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 90 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 20%
- 27%
- 53%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 10% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 9%. Today's estimate: 11%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 16 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartenders | 187,630 | 8% | 30 million | $33K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 24,040 | 40% | 20 million | $45K |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 50,960 | 6% | 6 million | $34K |
| General and Operations Managers | 11,240 | 23% | 5.3 million | $64K |
| Security Guards | 18,030 | 14% | 5.3 million | $35K |
| Cooks, Restaurant | 40,390 | 6% | 4.7 million | $37K |
| Food Service Managers | 3,430 | 36% | 2.6 million | $67K |
| Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop | 7,510 | 12% | 1.9 million | $31K |
| Cashiers | 3,410 | 19% | 1.3 million | $32K |
| Disc Jockeys, Except Radio | 1,990 | 18% | 728,501 | $59K |
| Cooks, Short Order | 6,110 | 3% | 343,138 | $36K |
| Food Preparation Workers | 5,300 | 3% | 297,648 | $36K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 48 smaller jobs (19,110 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders69 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Balance cash receipts.Bartenders8.1 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Order or requisition liquors and supplies.Bartenders5.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan bar menus.Bartenders5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop departmental objectives, budgets, policies, procedures, and strategies.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers4.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Write reports of daily activities and irregularities, such as equipment or property damage, theft, presence of unauthorized persons, or unusual occurrences.Security Guards3.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Create drink recipes.Bartenders3.3 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Forecast staff, equipment, and supply requirements, based on a master menu.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers3.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare checks that itemize and total meal costs and sales taxes.Waiters and Waitresses2.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Specify food portions and courses, production and time sequences, and workstation and equipment arrangements.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers2.4 million hours80% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works