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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Sector, 72

Accommodation and Food Services

14,276,590 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $39,060 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
15%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$120B

a year: 4.4 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 20%
  • 2%
  • 78%
1%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 14% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 20% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 15%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 1% within reacho1, December 2024: 2% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 3% within reacho3, April 2025: 5% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 6% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 8% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 8% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 8% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 9% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 14% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 15% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 30 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.

PeoplePay here
Fast Food and Counter Workers3,367,27015%1.1 billion$31K
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers1,037,79048%1 billion$43K
Waiters and Waitresses2,087,00011%456 million$35K
Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks248,24054%277 million$35K
Cashiers342,27030%214 million$32K
Bartenders600,58014%174 million$35K
Food Service Managers201,67036%152 million$66K
Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop410,39012%103 million$31K
General and Operations Managers216,76019%83 million$67K
Cooks, Restaurant1,312,0602%49 million$37K
Office Clerks, General38,45058%47 million$41K
First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers46,74047%46 million$51K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 233 smaller jobs (688,930 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers
    1 billion hours100% of the task within reach
  2. Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders
    441 million hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Collect payments from customers.Waiters and Waitresses
    339 million hours100% of the task within reach
  4. Develop departmental objectives, budgets, policies, procedures, and strategies.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    188 million hours100% of the task within reach
  5. Communicate with customers regarding orders, comments, and complaints.Fast Food and Counter Workers
    154 million hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Analyze operational problems, such as theft and wastage, and establish procedures to alleviate these problems.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    146 million hours100% of the task within reach
  7. Forecast staff, equipment, and supply requirements, based on a master menu.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    136 million hours100% of the task within reach
  8. Specify food portions and courses, production and time sequences, and workstation and equipment arrangements.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    130 million hours100% of the task within reach
  9. Prepare checks that itemize and total meal costs and sales taxes.Waiters and Waitresses
    119 million hours100% of the task within reach
  10. Perform personnel actions, such as hiring and firing staff, providing employee orientation and training, and conducting supervisory activities, such as creating work schedules or organizing employee time sheets.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
    114 million hours100% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Inside this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works