Sector, 72
Accommodation and Food Services
14,276,590 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $39,060 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 4.2 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 15%
- 21%
- 64%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 13% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 14,050,076 people in jobs so far, 98% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 2.3 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 1.8 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 678 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 8%
- 6%
- 3%
- 19%
- 64%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 14,050,076 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft11,276,058 (80%)
- The conversations8,683,335 (62%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself3,200,042 (23%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts1,866,931 (13%)
- Judgment where errors are severe1,054,485 (8%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization524,640 (4%)
- Running AI inside the business systems394,390 (3%)
- Signing off under your license15,020 (under 1%)
- Handling protected records130 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 14%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 71% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 66% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 53% in a purpose-built cell, 12% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.79 of 3.
- Not physical 29%
- No robot shown 5%
- In a purpose-built cell 53%
- In a structured facility 12%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 30 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 1,037,790 | 48% | 1 billion | $43K |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 3,367,270 | 7% | 455 million | $31K |
| Bartenders | 600,580 | 20% | 252 million | $35K |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 2,087,000 | 6% | 247 million | $35K |
| Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks | 248,240 | 45% | 230 million | $35K |
| Food Service Managers | 201,670 | 50% | 208 million | $66K |
| General and Operations Managers | 216,760 | 45% | 203 million | $67K |
| Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop | 410,390 | 23% | 192 million | $31K |
| Cooks, Restaurant | 1,312,060 | 6% | 164 million | $37K |
| Cashiers | 342,270 | 19% | 132 million | $32K |
| Chefs and Head Cooks | 160,460 | 27% | 91 million | $62K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 46,740 | 54% | 53 million | $51K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 233 smaller jobs (688,930 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders221 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Balance receipts and payments in cash registers.Fast Food and Counter Workers205 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Develop departmental objectives, budgets, policies, procedures, and strategies.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers188 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Forecast staff, equipment, and supply requirements, based on a master menu.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers136 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare checks that itemize and total meal costs and sales taxes.Waiters and Waitresses119 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Monitor and order supplies or food items, and restock as necessary to maintain inventory.Fast Food and Counter Workers118 million hours30% of the task within reach
- Specify food portions and courses, production and time sequences, and workstation and equipment arrangements.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers104 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Analyze operational problems, such as theft and wastage, and establish procedures to alleviate these problems.First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers102 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Perform bookkeeping activities, such as balancing accounts and conducting nightly audits.Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks86 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Write patrons' food orders on order slips, memorize orders, or enter orders into computers for transmittal to kitchen staff.Waiters and Waitresses83 million hours70% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Accommodation and Food Services is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 14% of the paid hours in Accommodation and Food Services are within reach of AI models now and 15% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Accommodation and Food Services carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers (1,037,790 people, 48% of their time, about 1 billion hours a year); Fast Food and Counter Workers (3,367,270 people, 7% of their time, about 455 million hours a year); and Bartenders (600,580 people, 20% of their time, about 252 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Accommodation and Food Services carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar (Bartenders, about 221 million hours a year); Balance receipts and payments in cash registers (Fast Food and Counter Workers, about 205 million hours a year); and Develop departmental objectives, budgets, policies, procedures, and strategies (First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers, about 188 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Accommodation and Food Services learn first?
- Among the 14,050,076 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (11,276,058 people); the conversations (8,683,335 people); and reviewing work you did not do yourself (3,200,042 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 85% of their working time stays with people, 10% becomes checking a model's work and 4% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Accommodation and Food Services (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 98% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.