Industry group, 3118
Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing
350,710 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $47,050 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 99 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 27%
- 10%
- 64%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 12% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 14%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 92% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakers | 79,680 | 8% | 13 million | $37K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 13,290 | 32% | 8.8 million | $61K |
| Cashiers | 20,470 | 19% | 7.9 million | $35K |
| Food Batchmakers | 28,040 | 13% | 7.4 million | $41K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 4,180 | 53% | 4.6 million | $48K |
| Retail Salespersons | 10,840 | 19% | 4.4 million | $34K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 2,740 | 64% | 3.7 million | $33K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,840 | 78% | 3 million | $52K |
| Office Clerks, General | 2,360 | 54% | 2.7 million | $43K |
| General and Operations Managers | 5,360 | 23% | 2.5 million | $93K |
| Packers and Packagers, Hand | 16,000 | 7% | 2.4 million | $36K |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 17,190 | 7% | 2.3 million | $34K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 105 smaller jobs (25,940 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop new recipes for baked goods.Bakers55 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Formulate or modify recipes for specific kinds of food products.Food Batchmakers8 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Prepare or maintain inventory or production records.Bakers4.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers3.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked.Bakers2.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers2.8 million hours67% of the task within reach
- Record product, packaging, and order information on specified forms and records.Packers and Packagers, Hand2.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine mixing sequences, based on knowledge of temperature effects and of the solubility of specific ingredients.Food Batchmakers2.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers2.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Animal Slaughtering and Processing557,460 people9% now, 14% by 2028
- Other Food Manufacturing274,060 people15% now, 25% by 2028
- Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty Food Manufacturing172,340 people14% now, 23% by 2028
- Dairy Product Manufacturing167,480 people15% now, 25% by 2028
- Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing83,910 people16% now, 27% by 2028
- Animal Food Manufacturing76,620 people18% now, 28% by 2028
- Grain and Oilseed Milling66,880 people16% now, 27% by 2028
- Seafood Product Preparation and Packaging29,030 people13% now, 20% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works