Sector, 44-45
Retail Trade
15,503,410 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $44,750 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 7.7 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 29%
- 5%
- 66%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 21% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 5%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 23%. Today's estimate: 24%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 91% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashiers | 2,552,720 | 30% | 1.6 billion | $33K |
| Retail Salespersons | 3,550,380 | 20% | 1.5 billion | $35K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 1,828,300 | 18% | 673 million | $36K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 411,850 | 67% | 570 million | $37K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 997,650 | 26% | 548 million | $48K |
| Office Clerks, General | 148,590 | 58% | 180 million | $40K |
| Pharmacy Technicians | 327,560 | 26% | 174 million | $43K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 120,260 | 69% | 171 million | $46K |
| General and Operations Managers | 443,920 | 19% | 171 million | $76K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 103,330 | 76% | 164 million | $46K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 154,730 | 43% | 138 million | $39K |
| Pharmacists | 163,000 | 35% | 120 million | $135K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 367 smaller jobs (1,437,063 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons860 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers375 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers267 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Calculate total payments received during a time period, and reconcile this with total sales.Cashiers254 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records related to sales.Retail Salespersons229 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Answer incoming phone calls.Cashiers206 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish credit policies and operating procedures.First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers195 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish and implement policies, goals, objectives, and procedures for the department.First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers186 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine proper storage methods, identification, and stock location, based on turnover, environmental factors, and physical capabilities of facilities.Stockers and Order Fillers169 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend disposal of excess, defective, or obsolete stock.Stockers and Order Fillers167 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- General Merchandise Retailers3,275,200 people23% now, 26% by 2028
- Food and Beverage Retailers3,246,380 people24% now, 27% by 2028
- Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers2,043,570 people22% now, 29% by 2028
- Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, Book, and Miscellaneous Retailers1,504,440 people24% now, 31% by 2028
- Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers1,392,800 people24% now, 29% by 2028
- Clothing, Clothing Accessories, Shoe, and Jewelry Retailers1,157,300 people23% now, 29% by 2028
- Health and Personal Care Retailers1,076,240 people28% now, 35% by 2028
- Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers1,042,980 people27% now, 30% by 2028
- Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics, and Appliance Retailers764,510 people30% now, 40% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works