Sector, 44-45
Retail Trade
15,503,410 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $44,750 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 8.4 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 28%
- 22%
- 51%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 23% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 15,130,279 people in jobs so far, 98% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 4.4 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 3.9 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 1.7 billion hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 15%
- 13%
- 6%
- 17%
- 50%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 15,130,279 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft11,626,323 (77%)
- The conversations7,389,450 (49%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts4,225,762 (28%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself3,124,976 (21%)
- Judgment where errors are severe1,927,837 (13%)
- Running AI inside the business systems829,300 (5%)
- Signing off under your license251,690 (2%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization222,250 (1%)
- Handling protected records4,800 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 26%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 57% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 51% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 32% in a purpose-built cell, 19% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.71 of 3.
- Not physical 43%
- No robot shown 6%
- In a purpose-built cell 32%
- In a structured facility 19%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 91% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Salespersons | 3,550,380 | 23% | 1.7 billion | $35K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 997,650 | 49% | 1 billion | $48K |
| Cashiers | 2,552,720 | 19% | 982 million | $33K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 1,828,300 | 19% | 734 million | $36K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 411,850 | 64% | 552 million | $37K |
| General and Operations Managers | 443,920 | 45% | 416 million | $76K |
| Pharmacy Technicians | 327,560 | 34% | 232 million | $43K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 103,330 | 88% | 189 million | $46K |
| Office Clerks, General | 148,590 | 56% | 175 million | $40K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 154,730 | 53% | 171 million | $39K |
| Pharmacists | 163,000 | 48% | 162 million | $135K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 120,260 | 59% | 147 million | $46K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 367 smaller jobs (1,437,063 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons430 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers375 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Open and close cash registers, performing tasks such as counting money, separating charge slips, coupons, and vouchers, balancing cash drawers, and making deposits.Retail Salespersons342 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers267 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain records related to sales.Retail Salespersons229 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Inventory stock and requisition new stock.Retail Salespersons201 million hours20% of the task within reach
- Establish credit policies and operating procedures.First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers195 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Calculate total payments received during a time period, and reconcile this with total sales.Cashiers178 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Plan budgets and authorize payments and merchandise returns.First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers142 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine proper storage methods, identification, and stock location, based on turnover, environmental factors, and physical capabilities of facilities.Stockers and Order Fillers136 million hours80% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- General Merchandise Retailers3,275,200 people25% now, 26% by 2028
- Food and Beverage Retailers3,246,380 people23% now, 23% by 2028
- Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers2,043,570 people25% now, 27% by 2028
- Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, Book, and Miscellaneous Retailers1,504,440 people29% now, 31% by 2028
- Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers1,392,800 people27% now, 28% by 2028
- Clothing, Clothing Accessories, Shoe, and Jewelry Retailers1,157,300 people29% now, 31% by 2028
- Health and Personal Care Retailers1,076,240 people34% now, 35% by 2028
- Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers1,042,980 people23% now, 24% by 2028
- Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics, and Appliance Retailers764,510 people35% now, 37% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Retail Trade is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 26% of the paid hours in Retail Trade are within reach of AI models now and 28% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (27% to 28% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Retail Trade carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Retail Salespersons (3,550,380 people, 23% of their time, about 1.7 billion hours a year); First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (997,650 people, 49% of their time, about 1 billion hours a year); and Cashiers (2,552,720 people, 19% of their time, about 982 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Retail Trade carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices (Retail Salespersons, about 430 million hours a year); Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions (Cashiers, about 375 million hours a year); and Open and close cash registers, performing tasks such as counting money, separating charge slips, coupons, and vouchers, balancing cash drawers, and making deposits (Retail Salespersons, about 342 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Retail Trade learn first?
- Among the 15,130,279 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (11,626,323 people); the conversations (7,389,450 people); and briefing a model and checking its drafts (4,225,762 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 72% of their working time stays with people, 16% becomes checking a model's work and 12% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Retail Trade (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 98% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.