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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Subsector, 455

General Merchandise Retailers

3,275,200 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $40,230 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
21%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$39B

a year: 1.4 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 25%
  • 19%
  • 56%
2%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 25% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 21%.

0%10%20%30%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 1% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 3% within reacho3, April 2025: 10% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 12% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 14% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 14% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 16% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 16% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 20% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 21% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 22 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.

PeoplePay here
Stockers and Order Fillers871,91019%345 million$36K
Retail Salespersons795,09019%321 million$34K
Cashiers496,33019%191 million$31K
Customer Service Representatives135,60064%182 million$38K
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers207,48028%122 million$47K
Pharmacy Technicians44,53026%24 million$48K
General and Operations Managers45,86023%22 million$72K
Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks18,97053%21 million$45K
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand94,5909%18 million$34K
Security Guards51,74014%15 million$35K
Pharmacists20,69035%15 million$151K
Opticians, Dispensing17,52029%10 million$60K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 130 smaller jobs (157,420 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons
    96 million hours50% of the task within reach
  2. Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers
    73 million hours100% of the task within reach
  3. Determine proper storage methods, identification, and stock location, based on turnover, environmental factors, and physical capabilities of facilities.Stockers and Order Fillers
    65 million hours80% of the task within reach
  4. Compile and maintain non-monetary reports and records.Cashiers
    52 million hours100% of the task within reach
  5. Maintain records related to sales.Retail Salespersons
    51 million hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Requisition merchandise from supplier, based on available space, merchandise on hand, customer demand, or advertised specials.Stockers and Order Fillers
    50 million hours100% of the task within reach
  7. Inventory stock and requisition new stock.Retail Salespersons
    45 million hours20% of the task within reach
  8. Establish credit policies and operating procedures.First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
    41 million hours100% of the task within reach
  9. Recommend disposal of excess, defective, or obsolete stock.Stockers and Order Fillers
    40 million hours50% of the task within reach
  10. Receive and count stock items, and record data manually or on computer.Stockers and Order Fillers
    36 million hours30% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Inside this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works