Industry group, 4811
Scheduled Air Transportation
506,330 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $110,350 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 203 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 21%
- 27%
- 52%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 477,354 people in jobs so far, 94% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 90 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 104 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 88 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 10%
- 11%
- 9%
- 19%
- 51%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 477,354 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The conversations209,820 (44%)
- The hands-on craft206,453 (43%)
- Signing off under your license144,310 (30%)
- Judgment where errors are severe126,165 (26%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization76,050 (16%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself74,181 (16%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts45,289 (9%)
- Running AI inside the business systems31,700 (7%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 20%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 51% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 34% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 18% in a purpose-built cell, 16% in a structured facility. 0.50 of 3.
- Not physical 49%
- No robot shown 17%
- In a purpose-built cell 18%
- In a structured facility 16%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 25 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks | 75,800 | 36% | 57 million | $45K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 18,550 | 64% | 25 million | $47K |
| Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers | 90,840 | 9% | 17 million | $293K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 14,940 | 54% | 17 million | $77K |
| Flight Attendants | 127,660 | 5% | 13 million | $64K |
| Cargo and Freight Agents | 8,440 | 50% | 8.7 million | $49K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 40,740 | 9% | 7.6 million | $46K |
| Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians | 29,480 | 11% | 6.6 million | $98K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 2,120 | 72% | 3.2 million | $61K |
| Airfield Operations Specialists | 5,300 | 28% | 3.1 million | $52K |
| Human Resources Specialists | 1,780 | 63% | 2.3 million | $73K |
| Software Developers | 2,160 | 48% | 2.2 million | $142K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 95 smaller jobs (24,490 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Make and confirm reservations for transportation and accommodations, using telephones, faxes, mail, and computers.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks14 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Plan routes, itineraries, and accommodation details, and compute fares and fees, using schedules, rate books, and computers.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare reports showing places of departure and destination, passenger ticket numbers, meal and beverage inventories, the conditions of cabin equipment, and any problems encountered by passengers.Flight Attendants11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare customer invoices and accept payment.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks8.5 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers6.1 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand5.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine whether space is available on travel dates requested by customers, assigning requested spaces when available.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks5.7 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Provide clients with assistance in preparing required travel documents and forms.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks5.4 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Assemble and issue required documentation, such as tickets, travel insurance policies, or itineraries.Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks4.7 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives4.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Scheduled Air Transportation is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 20% of the paid hours in Scheduled Air Transportation are within reach of AI models now and 21% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Scheduled Air Transportation carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks (75,800 people, 36% of their time, about 57 million hours a year); Customer Service Representatives (18,550 people, 64% of their time, about 25 million hours a year); and Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers (90,840 people, 9% of their time, about 17 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Scheduled Air Transportation carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Make and confirm reservations for transportation and accommodations, using telephones, faxes, mail, and computers (Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks, about 14 million hours a year); Plan routes, itineraries, and accommodation details, and compute fares and fees, using schedules, rate books, and computers (Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks, about 12 million hours a year); and Prepare reports showing places of departure and destination, passenger ticket numbers, meal and beverage inventories, the conditions of cabin equipment, and any problems encountered by passengers (Flight Attendants, about 11 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Scheduled Air Transportation learn first?
- Among the 477,354 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the conversations (209,820 people); the hands-on craft (206,453 people); and signing off under your license (144,310 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 79% of their working time stays with people, 15% becomes checking a model's work and 6% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Scheduled Air Transportation (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 98% of its people, and 94% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.