Industry group, 4812
Nonscheduled Air Transportation
56,890 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $113,680 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 37 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 38%
- 13%
- 49%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 26% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 32,602 people in jobs so far, 57% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 16 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 8.7 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 8.3 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 32%
- 14%
- 14%
- 7%
- 34%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 32,602 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself16,952 (52%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts13,477 (41%)
- Judgment where errors are severe8,585 (26%)
- The hands-on craft6,900 (21%)
- Signing off under your license6,500 (20%)
- The conversations5,410 (17%)
- Running AI inside the business systems5,180 (16%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization440 (1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 22%. Today's estimate: 32%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 40% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 24% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 11% in a purpose-built cell, 13% in a structured facility. 0.37 of 3.
- Not physical 60%
- No robot shown 16%
- In a purpose-built cell 11%
- In a structured facility 13%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 92% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Pilots | 18,580 | 27% | 10 million | $133K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 1,810 | 59% | 2.2 million | $63K |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,010 | 45% | 1.9 million | $143K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,400 | 64% | 1.9 million | $48K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 910 | 88% | 1.7 million | $56K |
| Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians | 6,420 | 11% | 1.4 million | $80K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,050 | 56% | 1.2 million | $72K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers | 1,190 | 47% | 1.2 million | $118K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 1,040 | 45% | 975,632 | $83K |
| Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers | 1,330 | 32% | 885,272 | $125K |
| Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance | 580 | 73% | 878,260 | $58K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 560 | 54% | 633,654 | $75K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 53 smaller jobs (4,360 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.Commercial Pilots1.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.Commercial Pilots1.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.Commercial Pilots1.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.Commercial Pilots1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.Commercial Pilots1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.Commercial Pilots1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.Commercial Pilots900,461 hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel773,252 hours100% of the task within reach
- Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.Commercial Pilots564,237 hours100% of the task within reach
- Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.Commercial Pilots408,492 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Nonscheduled Air Transportation is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 32% of the paid hours in Nonscheduled Air Transportation are within reach of AI models now and 38% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (37% to 38% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Nonscheduled Air Transportation carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Commercial Pilots (18,580 people, 27% of their time, about 10 million hours a year); Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel (1,810 people, 59% of their time, about 2.2 million hours a year); and General and Operations Managers (2,010 people, 45% of their time, about 1.9 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Nonscheduled Air Transportation carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights (Commercial Pilots, about 1.8 million hours a year); Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments (Commercial Pilots, about 1.8 million hours a year); and Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports (Commercial Pilots, about 1.4 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Nonscheduled Air Transportation learn first?
- Among the 32,602 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (16,952 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (13,477 people); and judgment where errors are severe (8,585 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 54% of their working time stays with people, 36% becomes checking a model's work and 9% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Nonscheduled Air Transportation (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 96% of its people, and 57% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.