Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 9% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 91% of the time, stays with people.
Pilot and navigate the flight of fixed-wing aircraft, usually on scheduled air carrier routes, for the transport of passengers and cargo. Requires Federal Air Transport certificate and rating for specific aircraft type used. Includes regional, national, and international airline pilots and flight instructors of airline pilots.
103,560 people do this job in the US. $232,140 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work4 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people36 h
Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 4 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 36 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Choose routes, altitudes and speeds (about 1 h, a person checks); Plan flight activities and reports (under an hour, a person checks); Check weight and balance (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 8%
- 1%
- 5%
- 11%
- 75%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 9% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 7%. Today's estimate: 9%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 24 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0039% to 0.0015% (released February and March 2025).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0039% | 634 of 708 | 1 of 24 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0015% | 697 of 703 | 1 of 24 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 24 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 24 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 24 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 24 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 24 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 58% of this job's working time as physical work. For 27% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 2% in a purpose-built cell, 25% in a structured facility. 0.52 of 3, the 304th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 42%
- No robot shown 31%
- In a purpose-built cell 2%
- In a structured facility 25%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
89% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Pilot the aircraft, the hands-on work, 22%
- Monitor engines and systems, the hands-on work, 14%
- Steer the aircraft, the hands-on work, 13%
- Monitor gauges and control panels, the hands-on work, 10%
- Work as a flight crew, the hands-on work, 7%
- Fly on instruments, the hands-on work, 4%
What becomes checking the machine
7% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Choose routes, altitudes and speeds, a licensed person signs, 3%
- Plan flight activities and reports, a licensed person signs, 2%
- Check weight and balance, a licensed person signs, 1%
- Record flight logs, a licensed person signs, 0.7%
What to learn
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- The hands-on craft. About 75% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- The conversations. About 16% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 24 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight, adhering to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.Starting, operating and flying the airplane to the plan.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 22% | 2.5 h50 min to 1 work day | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.Watching engine and system performance through the flight.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 14% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Steer aircraft along planned routes, using autopilot and flight management computers.Flying the route with the autopilot and flight computers.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Autopilot Flight Director System / Flight Management System (LNAV/VNAV autoflight) (Boeing/Airbus/Honeywell) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 13% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Monitor gauges, warning devices, and control panels to verify aircraft performance and to regulate engine speed.Watching the panels and regulating the engines.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Autothrottle / autothrust (Boeing, Airbus, Embraer transport aircraft) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 38 min17 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Work as part of a flight team with other crew members, especially during takeoffs and landings.Flying together in the cockpit, especially on takeoff and landing.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Airbus UpNext ATTOL (Autonomous Taxi, Take-Off and Landing) on A350-1000 (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 38 min17 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 70%, in person 30% | Stays with people |
| Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.Worked out from the charts and weather, with adjustments in flight.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 38 min13 min to 1.3 h | Documents 70%, hands-on 30% | 70%Desk part half by now |
| Use instrumentation to guide flights when visibility is poor.Flying by the instruments in poor visibility.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Garmin Autoland (Autonomi suite, G3000) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Direct activities of aircraft crews during flights.Directing the crew from the cockpit.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 3% | 38 min17 min to 1.7 h | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Inspect aircraft for defects and malfunctions, according to pre-flight checklists.The walk-around and checklist.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 25 min17 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Brief crews about flight details, such as destinations, duties, and responsibilities.The crew briefing before the flight.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 2% | 25 min13 min to 38 min | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations and the principles of flight.Instruction in the cockpit and simulator, with the material.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 1.7 h50 min to 3.3 h | In person 80%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Evaluate other pilots or pilot-license applicants for proficiency.Check rides in the cockpit, with the evaluation written.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 2% | 2.5 h50 min to 5 h | In person 60%, documents 20%, hands-on 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Commercial Pilots27% now, 27% by 2028
- Air Traffic Controllers73% now, 73% by 2028
- Airfield Operations Specialists28% now, 33% by 2028
- Aircraft Service Attendants15% now, 15% by 2028
- Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels7% now, 8% by 2028
- Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians11% now, 12% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 9% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 9% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Choose routes, altitudes and speeds (70% of the task's time now); Plan flight activities and reports (91% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Check weight and balance (70% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Pilot the aircraft; Monitor engines and systems; and Steer the aircraft. Together such tasks are about 82% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are signing off under your license; judgment where errors are severe; and the hands-on craft. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 89% of the working time stays with people, 7% becomes checking a model's work and 0% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 58% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 27% of the working time, 25% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.52 of 3. One example: Autopilot Flight Director System / Flight Management System (LNAV/VNAV autoflight) for "steer the aircraft". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 24 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.
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