Air Traffic Controllers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 73% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 27% of the time, stays with people.
Control air traffic on and within vicinity of airport, and movement of air traffic between altitude sectors and control centers, according to established procedures and policies. Authorize, regulate, and control commercial airline flights according to government or company regulations to expedite and ensure flight safety.
22,510 people do this job in the US. $148,080 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on29 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people11 h
Air Traffic Controllers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 29 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 11 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Provide on-the-job training to new air traffic controllers (about 7 h); Monitor aircraft within a specific airspace, using radar, computer equipment, or visual references (about 6 h); Organize flight plans or traffic management plans to prepare for planes about to enter assigned airspace (about 3 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 73%
- 20%
- 6%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 12%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 67%. Today's estimate: 73%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 349th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 23 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.017% to 0.0087% (released February and March 2025); 0.0018% to 0.0063% (August 2025 to February 2026); none to 0.011% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.017% | 464 of 708 | 3 of 23 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0087% | 527 of 703 | 2 of 23 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0018% | 639 of 655 | 1 of 23 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0023% | 636 of 672 | 1 of 23 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.0063% | 548 of 677 | 3 of 23 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 23 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 349 of 447 | 1 of 23 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates almost none of this job's working time as physical work, so robots do not reach it.
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 23 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Provide on-the-job training to new air traffic controllers.Done daily by most who do it. | 17% | 1.7 h50 min to 3.3 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Monitor aircraft within a specific airspace, using radar, computer equipment, or visual references.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 15% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Monitor, direct, or sequence the movement of aircraft within an assigned air space or on the ground at airports to minimize delays and maximize safety.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 15% | 25 min4 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Organize flight plans or traffic management plans to prepare for planes about to enter assigned airspace.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 8% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Inspect, adjust, or control radio equipment or airport lights.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 6% | 25 min8 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Conduct pre-flight briefings on weather conditions, suggested routes, altitudes, indications of turbulence, or other flight safety information.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Analyze factors such as weather reports, fuel requirements, or maps to determine air routes.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 5% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Complete daily activity reports and keep records of messages from aircraft.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Compile information about flights from flight plans, pilot reports, radar, or observations.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 4% | 13 min4 min to 33 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Direct ground traffic, including taxiing aircraft, maintenance or baggage vehicles, or airport workers.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 4% | 13 min3 min to 38 min | Stays with people | |
| Review records or reports for clarity and completeness and maintain records or reports, as required under federal law.Done daily by most who do it. | 2% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now | |
| Direct pilots to runways when space is available or direct them to maintain a traffic pattern until there is space for them to land.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 2% | 4 min2 min to 8 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Airfield Operations Specialists28% now, 33% by 2028
- Commercial Pilots27% now, 27% by 2028
- Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers9% now, 9% by 2028
- Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters33% now, 33% by 2028
- Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors30% now, 30% by 2028
- Traffic Technicians62% now, 80% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Air Traffic Controllers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 73% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 73% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Air Traffic Controllers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Provide on-the-job training to new air traffic controllers (100% of the task's time now); Monitor aircraft within a specific airspace, using radar, computer equipment, or visual references (100% of the task's time now); and Organize flight plans or traffic management plans to prepare for planes about to enter assigned airspace (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Air Traffic Controllers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Monitor, direct, or sequence the movement of aircraft within an assigned air space or on the ground at airports to minimize delays and maximize safety; Inspect, adjust, or control radio equipment or airport lights; and Direct ground traffic, including taxiing aircraft, maintenance or baggage vehicles, or airport workers. Together such tasks are about 27% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Air Traffic Controllers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks, the 349th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 23 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Air Traffic Controllers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds almost none of the working time is physical work, so robots do not reach it.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 23 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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