Industry group, 5132
Software Publishers
659,550 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $142,150 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 689 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 75%
- 23%
- 2%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 28% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 624,980 people in jobs so far, 95% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 529 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 131 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 226 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 62%
- 12%
- 20%
- 3%
- 2%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 624,980 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself553,907 (89%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts509,638 (82%)
- The conversations84,527 (14%)
- Running AI inside the business systems63,580 (10%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization18,440 (3%)
- Judgment where errors are severe12,915 (2%)
- The hands-on craft6,193 (1%)
- Handling protected records380 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 51%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 3% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 2% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 2% in a purpose-built cell. 0.02 of 3.
- Not physical 97%
- In a purpose-built cell 2%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 88% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Developers | 173,080 | 48% | 173 million | $165K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 45,020 | 59% | 55 million | $99K |
| Computer User Support Specialists | 29,860 | 57% | 36 million | $66K |
| Computer and Information Systems Managers | 35,120 | 45% | 33 million | $202K |
| Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 23,490 | 50% | 24 million | $128K |
| Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers | 16,710 | 66% | 23 million | $101K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 16,710 | 64% | 22 million | $58K |
| Web and Digital Interface Designers | 16,970 | 63% | 22 million | $129K |
| Project Management Specialists | 17,300 | 58% | 21 million | $131K |
| General and Operations Managers | 22,060 | 45% | 21 million | $177K |
| Data Scientists | 10,950 | 71% | 16 million | $156K |
| Sales Managers | 16,330 | 42% | 14 million | $168K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 100 smaller jobs (75,330 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 99% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Software Developers57 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers48 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers34 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.Software Developers31 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Determine system performance standards.Software Developers26 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze information to determine, recommend, and plan installation of a new system or modification of an existing system.Software Developers24 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel19 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Store, retrieve, and manipulate data for analysis of system capabilities and requirements.Software Developers19 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop computer information resources, providing for data security and control, strategic computing, and disaster recovery.Computer and Information Systems Managers18 million hours92% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists15 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Software Publishers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 51% of the paid hours in Software Publishers are within reach of AI models now and 73% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (68% to 75% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Software Publishers carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Software Developers (173,080 people, 48% of their time, about 173 million hours a year); Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel (45,020 people, 59% of their time, about 55 million hours a year); and Computer User Support Specialists (29,860 people, 57% of their time, about 36 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Software Publishers carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design (Software Developers, about 57 million hours a year); Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance (Software Developers, about 48 million hours a year); and Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints (Software Developers, about 34 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Software Publishers learn first?
- Among the 624,980 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are reviewing work you did not do yourself (553,907 people); briefing a model and checking its drafts (509,638 people); and the conversations (84,527 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 25% of their working time stays with people, 63% becomes checking a model's work and 10% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Software Publishers (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 99% of its people, and 95% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.