First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 28% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 29% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 71% of the time, stays with people.
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of correctional officers and jailers.
53,380 people do this job in the US. $77,970 a year.
Reviewed on October 18, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on2 h
- A person checks AI's work10 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people28 h
First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 2 hours, 10 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 28 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Develop security procedures (about 3 h, a person checks); Complete and oversee paperwork (about 2 h, a person checks); Set work schedules (about 2 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 21%
- 7%
- 2%
- 49%
- 21%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 28% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 28%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 370th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 23 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0051% to 0.0017% (released February and March 2025); 0.0044% to none (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.011% to 0.011% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0051% | 603 of 708 | 2 of 23 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0017% | 688 of 703 | 1 of 23 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0044% | 548 of 655 | 2 of 23 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 23 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 23 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 354 of 434 | 1 of 23 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 370 of 447 | 1 of 23 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 34% of this job's working time as physical work. For 1% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 1% in a purpose-built cell. 0.01 of 3, the 653rd highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 66%
- No robot shown 33%
- In a purpose-built cell 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
71% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Supervise correctional officers, the in-person work, 14%
- Maintain order and security, the in-person work, 9%
- Monitor officers' conduct, the in-person work, 7%
- Transport offenders, the hands-on work, 6%
- Supervise searches and riot control, the in-person work, 5%
- Guard offenders at work, the hands-on work, 5%
What becomes checking the machine
25% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 4% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Develop security procedures, severe if wrong, 7%
- Complete and oversee paperwork, costly if wrong, 5%
- Supervise correctional officers, severe if wrong, 4%
- Review offender files for issues, severe if wrong, 3%
- Know and enforce institutional rules, costly if wrong, 2%
- Evaluate officers' performance, costly if wrong, 2%
What to learn
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- The conversations. About 50% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 21% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 23 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers to ensure the safe custody, discipline, and welfare of inmates.Directing the officers on the unit, with the shift's plan behind it.Done daily by most who do it. | 18% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | In person 80%, documents 20% | 19%Desk part half by now |
| Maintain order, discipline, and security within assigned areas in accordance with relevant rules, regulations, policies, and laws.Being present on the unit and dealing with the inmates to keep order.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | In person 60%, hands-on 40% | Stays with people |
| Monitor behavior of subordinates to ensure alert, courteous, and professional behavior toward inmates, parolees, fellow employees, visitors, and the public.Watching how officers deal with inmates, visitors and the public.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 50 min13 min to 2.5 h | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Develop work or security procedures.Writing the work and security procedures for the unit.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h | Documents 100% | 91%Half by now |
| Transfer or transport offenders on foot or by driving vehicles, such as trailers, vans, or buses.Moving offenders on foot or driving them in vans and buses.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Supervise activities, such as searches, shakedowns, riot control, or institutional tours.Directing searches, shakedowns and riot control on the ground.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.7 h38 min to 5 h | In person 70%, hands-on 30% | Stays with people |
| Maintain knowledge of, comply with, and enforce all institutional policies, rules, procedures, and regulations.Keeping the rules in mind and holding staff and inmates to them on the unit.Done hourly or more by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | In person 60%, documents 40% | 40%Desk part half by now |
| Supervise or provide security for offenders performing tasks, such as construction, maintenance, laundry, food service, or other industrial or agricultural operations.Being present while offenders work in the kitchen, laundry or grounds.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.7 h25 min to 6.7 h | Hands-on 60%, in person 40% | Stays with people |
| Set up employee work schedules.Building the schedule in the system, with some planning and telling people.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 1.7 h25 min to 4.2 h | Systems 50%, documents 30%, conversation 20% | 77%Desk part half by now |
| Complete administrative paperwork or supervise the preparation or maintenance of records, forms, or reports.Filling in the shift's forms and reports and checking the officers' records.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 5% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Systems 60%, documents 40% | 100%Half by now |
| Instruct employees or provide on-the-job training.Teaching officers on the unit.Done daily by most who do it. | 4% | 50 min25 min to 3.3 h | In person 100% | Stays with people |
| Supervise or perform searches of inmates or their quarters to locate contraband items.Running and overseeing searches of inmates and cells.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 38 min17 min to 2.5 h | Hands-on 70%, in person 30% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Correctional Officers and Jailers17% now, 18% by 2028
- Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists34% now, 37% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers34% now, 42% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives44% now, 53% by 2028
- Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers13% now, 14% by 2028
- Detectives and Criminal Investigators69% now, 74% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 28% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 29% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Develop security procedures (91% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Complete and oversee paperwork (100% of the task's time now); and Set work schedules (77% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Maintain order and security; Monitor officers' conduct; and Transport offenders. Together such tasks are about 47% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are judgment where errors are severe; the conversations; and signing off under your license. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 71% of the working time stays with people, 25% becomes checking a model's work and 4% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks, the 370th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 23 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 3%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 34% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 1% of the working time. Its index is 0.01 of 3. One example: OPEX Eagle remittance processor for "inspect inmate mail". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 23 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on October 18, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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