State
Arkansas
1,303,630 people work in Arkansas, at mean pay of $54,890 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 623 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 37%
- 7%
- 56%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 23%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 49% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 29,940 | 58% | 36 million | $37K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 20,680 | 67% | 29 million | $38K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 12,510 | 76% | 20 million | $43K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 10,870 | 83% | 19 million | $35K |
| Cashiers | 28,270 | 30% | 18 million | $28K |
| Retail Salespersons | 35,510 | 20% | 15 million | $29K |
| General and Operations Managers | 34,570 | 19% | 13 million | $74K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 13,630 | 47% | 13 million | $58K |
| Registered Nurses | 29,400 | 21% | 13 million | $79K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 12,740 | 44% | 12 million | $55K |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 35,660 | 15% | 11 million | $26K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 11,200 | 48% | 11 million | $34K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 648 smaller jobs (649,850 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons8.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses8.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General7.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers6.1 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Maintain and update filing, inventory, mailing, and database systems, either manually or using a computer.Office Clerks, General5.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile, copy, sort, and file records of office activities, business transactions, and other activities.Office Clerks, General5 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives4.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Contact customers to respond to inquiries or to notify them of claim investigation results or any planned adjustments.Customer Service Representatives4.5 million hours100% of the task within reach
Metro and nonmetro areas in Arkansas
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR358,210 people25% now, 38% by 2028
- Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR275,180 people24% now, 38% by 2028
- North Arkansas nonmetropolitan area119,300 people23% now, 32% by 2028
- South Arkansas nonmetropolitan area117,350 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Fort Smith, AR-OK95,560 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- West Arkansas nonmetropolitan area85,640 people22% now, 31% by 2028
- East Arkansas nonmetropolitan area68,080 people23% now, 31% by 2028
- Jonesboro, AR60,620 people24% now, 33% by 2028
- Hot Springs, AR38,600 people24% now, 33% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works