State
Oregon
1,967,130 people work in Oregon, at mean pay of $72,460 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 934 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 40%
- 8%
- 52%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 24%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 45% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 21,710 | 76% | 34 million | $54K |
| Office Clerks, General | 27,980 | 58% | 34 million | $50K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 16,840 | 87% | 31 million | $50K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 19,440 | 67% | 27 million | $47K |
| Cashiers | 37,660 | 30% | 24 million | $35K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 13,590 | 83% | 23 million | $41K |
| Retail Salespersons | 48,090 | 20% | 20 million | $37K |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 59,920 | 15% | 19 million | $35K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 23,150 | 39% | 19 million | $52K |
| Project Management Specialists | 19,380 | 45% | 18 million | $105K |
| Registered Nurses | 39,730 | 21% | 17 million | $129K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 16,880 | 48% | 17 million | $47K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 700 smaller jobs (1,045,890 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses11 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders8.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Coordinate conferences, meetings, or special events, such as luncheons or graduation ceremonies.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive8.4 million hours89% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks7.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Communicate with key stakeholders to determine project requirements and objectives.Project Management Specialists7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants6.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.A job in this area6.4 million hours90% of the task within reach
Metro and nonmetro areas in Oregon
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA1,208,410 people24% now, 40% by 2028
- Salem, OR188,620 people24% now, 38% by 2028
- Eugene-Springfield, OR157,710 people25% now, 37% by 2028
- Coast Oregon nonmetropolitan area114,190 people23% now, 32% by 2028
- Bend, OR108,240 people25% now, 37% by 2028
- Medford, OR89,060 people25% now, 36% by 2028
- Eastern Oregon nonmetropolitan area73,720 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Central Oregon nonmetropolitan area50,170 people24% now, 34% by 2028
- Albany, OR47,260 people23% now, 32% by 2028
- Corvallis, OR38,550 people25% now, 41% by 2028
- Grants Pass, OR30,540 people24% now, 31% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works