Metro area, Oregon
Salem, OR
188,620 people work in this area, at mean pay of $67,920 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 79 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 37%
- 17%
- 46%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 51% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2,230 | 78% | 3.6 million | $54K |
| Office Clerks, General | 3,160 | 54% | 3.6 million | $51K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 2,140 | 64% | 2.9 million | $48K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 3,220 | 43% | 2.9 million | $56K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 1,440 | 81% | 2.4 million | $49K |
| Registered Nurses | 4,010 | 28% | 2.3 million | $132K |
| Retail Salespersons | 4,550 | 19% | 1.8 million | $36K |
| General and Operations Managers | 3,490 | 23% | 1.7 million | $114K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 1,290 | 59% | 1.6 million | $39K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 3,950 | 19% | 1.6 million | $42K |
| Cashiers | 3,480 | 19% | 1.3 million | $34K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 1,440 | 40% | 1.2 million | $46K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 420 smaller jobs (85,520 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 92% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts1.4 million hours76% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts1.2 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Gather and organize information on problems or procedures.Management Analysts920,677 hours80% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General791,497 hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks725,214 hours100% of the task within reach
- Verify that all firm and regulatory policies and procedures have been documented, implemented, and communicated.Compliance Officers708,558 hours94% of the task within reach
- Coordinate conferences, meetings, or special events, such as luncheons or graduation ceremonies.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive705,225 hours53% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses671,865 hours60% of the task within reach
- Use computers for various applications, such as database management or word processing.Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive643,156 hours100% of the task within reach
- Recommend purchase of storage equipment and design area layout to locate equipment in space available.Management Analysts579,690 hours79% of the task within reach
Other areas in Oregon
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA1,208,410 people22% now, 38% by 2028
- Eugene-Springfield, OR157,710 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Coast Oregon nonmetropolitan area114,190 people21% now, 30% by 2028
- Bend, OR108,240 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Medford, OR89,060 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- Eastern Oregon nonmetropolitan area73,720 people21% now, 30% by 2028
- Central Oregon nonmetropolitan area50,170 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Albany, OR47,260 people21% now, 30% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works