Metro area, Oregon
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
1,208,410 people work in this area, at mean pay of $78,430 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 532 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 40%
- 16%
- 44%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 45% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 12,170 | 78% | 20 million | $57K |
| Office Clerks, General | 15,920 | 54% | 18 million | $51K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 12,720 | 64% | 17 million | $49K |
| Registered Nurses | 24,220 | 28% | 14 million | $130K |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 8,290 | 81% | 14 million | $55K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 13,510 | 43% | 12 million | $55K |
| Retail Salespersons | 28,230 | 19% | 11 million | $37K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 26,750 | 19% | 11 million | $44K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 8,340 | 59% | 10 million | $44K |
| General and Operations Managers | 21,070 | 23% | 10 million | $121K |
| Project Management Specialists | 14,440 | 33% | 9.9 million | $108K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 9,900 | 40% | 8.3 million | $49K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 648 smaller jobs (639,160 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 95% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers5.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists4.6 million hours90% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses4.1 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Operate computers programmed with accounting software to record, store, and analyze information.Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers3.5 million hours70% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons3.4 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Develop or update project plans including information such as objectives, technologies, schedules, funding, and staffing.Project Management Specialists3.4 million hours96% of the task within reach
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants3.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.Software Developers3.3 million hours79% of the task within reach
Other areas in Oregon
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Salem, OR188,620 people22% now, 36% by 2028
- Eugene-Springfield, OR157,710 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Coast Oregon nonmetropolitan area114,190 people21% now, 30% by 2028
- Bend, OR108,240 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Medford, OR89,060 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- Eastern Oregon nonmetropolitan area73,720 people21% now, 30% by 2028
- Central Oregon nonmetropolitan area50,170 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- Albany, OR47,260 people21% now, 30% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works