State
Minnesota
2,949,820 people work in Minnesota, at mean pay of $71,160 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 1.4 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 40%
- 8%
- 52%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 24% within reach now and 39% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 24%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 49% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 53,340 | 67% | 74 million | $49K |
| Office Clerks, General | 55,530 | 58% | 67 million | $48K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 26,850 | 76% | 43 million | $55K |
| Cashiers | 58,190 | 30% | 36 million | $35K |
| Retail Salespersons | 74,840 | 20% | 31 million | $36K |
| Registered Nurses | 70,110 | 21% | 30 million | $102K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 31,230 | 44% | 29 million | $77K |
| General and Operations Managers | 72,860 | 19% | 28 million | $99K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 19,220 | 69% | 27 million | $75K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 31,330 | 39% | 25 million | $51K |
| Personal Care Aides | 64,340 | 17% | 23 million | $38K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 21,690 | 47% | 21 million | $76K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 683 smaller jobs (1,463,550 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 98% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses20 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan, organize, and control the operations of a cocktail lounge or bar.Bartenders18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform personnel activities, such as supervising and training employees.Fast Food and Counter Workers18 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General14 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers13 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists12 million hours90% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Contact customers to respond to inquiries or to notify them of claim investigation results or any planned adjustments.Customer Service Representatives12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Provide patients and families with emotional support and instruction in areas such as caring for infants, preparing healthy meals, living independently, or adapting to disability or illness.Home Health Aides12 million hours100% of the task within reach
Metro and nonmetro areas in Minnesota
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI1,951,650 people24% now, 40% by 2028
- Northwest Minnesota nonmetropolitan area193,040 people23% now, 33% by 2028
- Southeast Minnesota nonmetropolitan area154,300 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Duluth, MN-WI124,710 people23% now, 35% by 2028
- Rochester, MN122,980 people26% now, 38% by 2028
- Southwest Minnesota nonmetropolitan area117,590 people22% now, 32% by 2028
- St. Cloud, MN103,920 people24% now, 35% by 2028
- Mankato, MN56,180 people24% now, 36% by 2028
- Northeast Minnesota nonmetropolitan area43,950 people23% now, 32% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works