Metro area, Minnesota
Rochester, MN
122,980 people work in this area, at mean pay of $80,590 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 54 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 37%
- 18%
- 45%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 19% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 22%. Today's estimate: 24%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 55% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 3,890 | 81% | 6.5 million | $46K |
| Registered Nurses | 6,390 | 28% | 3.7 million | $102K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,690 | 54% | 1.9 million | $49K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,250 | 64% | 1.7 million | $47K |
| Nurse Practitioners | 1,190 | 64% | 1.6 million | $126K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 790 | 78% | 1.3 million | $58K |
| Retail Salespersons | 2,900 | 19% | 1.2 million | $36K |
| Cashiers | 2,600 | 19% | 1 million | $35K |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,020 | 23% | 957,971 | $86K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 1,000 | 43% | 886,082 | $53K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 880 | 40% | 739,483 | $45K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 940 | 35% | 676,502 | $73K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 295 smaller jobs (48,180 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 88% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Perform bookkeeping duties, such as credits or collections, preparing and sending financial statements or bills, and keeping financial records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses1.1 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Operate office equipment, such as voice mail messaging systems, and use word processing, spreadsheet, or other software applications to prepare reports, invoices, financial statements, letters, case histories, or medical records.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants867,458 hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete insurance or other claim forms.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants746,170 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain accurate, detailed reports and records.Registered Nurses732,877 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare correspondence or assist physicians or medical scientists with preparation of reports, speeches, articles, or conference proceedings.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants635,402 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compile and record medical charts, reports, or correspondence, using typewriter or personal computer.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants604,332 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain medical records, technical library, or correspondence files.Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants584,249 hours80% of the task within reach
- Develop, standardize, evaluate, or modify procedures, techniques, or tests used in the analysis of specimens or in medical laboratory experiments.Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists516,775 hours96% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers513,829 hours100% of the task within reach
Other areas in Minnesota
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI1,951,650 people22% now, 38% by 2028
- Northwest Minnesota nonmetropolitan area193,040 people21% now, 31% by 2028
- Southeast Minnesota nonmetropolitan area154,300 people20% now, 31% by 2028
- Duluth, MN-WI124,710 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Southwest Minnesota nonmetropolitan area117,590 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- St. Cloud, MN103,920 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Mankato, MN56,180 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Northeast Minnesota nonmetropolitan area43,950 people21% now, 30% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works