Metro area, Minnesota
St. Cloud, MN
103,920 people work in this area, at mean pay of $63,750 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 44 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 34%
- 18%
- 49%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 18% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 20%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 55% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 2,240 | 54% | 2.5 million | $46K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,850 | 64% | 2.5 million | $48K |
| Registered Nurses | 2,910 | 28% | 1.7 million | $105K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 880 | 78% | 1.4 million | $51K |
| Retail Salespersons | 2,850 | 19% | 1.2 million | $35K |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,340 | 23% | 1.1 million | $90K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 1,230 | 43% | 1.1 million | $49K |
| Cashiers | 2,560 | 19% | 985,088 | $32K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 1,240 | 36% | 923,356 | $65K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 1,820 | 19% | 719,264 | $37K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 620 | 53% | 682,198 | $46K |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 2,140 | 14% | 609,814 | $62K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 305 smaller jobs (43,120 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 92% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General561,061 hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses487,563 hours60% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives418,701 hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives386,185 hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers376,410 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons345,336 hours50% of the task within reach
- Maintain accurate, detailed reports and records.Registered Nurses333,751 hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain and update filing, inventory, mailing, and database systems, either manually or using a computer.Office Clerks, General312,575 hours80% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand310,587 hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers299,215 hours40% of the task within reach
Other areas in Minnesota
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI1,951,650 people22% now, 38% by 2028
- Northwest Minnesota nonmetropolitan area193,040 people21% now, 31% by 2028
- Southeast Minnesota nonmetropolitan area154,300 people20% now, 31% by 2028
- Duluth, MN-WI124,710 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Rochester, MN122,980 people24% now, 36% by 2028
- Southwest Minnesota nonmetropolitan area117,590 people20% now, 30% by 2028
- Mankato, MN56,180 people22% now, 33% by 2028
- Northeast Minnesota nonmetropolitan area43,950 people21% now, 30% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works