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STRATUSWORKFORCE SCAN
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Industry group, 5414

Specialized Design Services

151,930 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $82,650 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now
27%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$4.0B

a year: 82 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work
  • 72%
  • 14%
  • 14%
7%

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 20% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 72% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 21%. Today's estimate: 27%.

0%10%20%30%40%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 1% within reacho3, April 2025: 3% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 4% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 7% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 7% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 8% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 9% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 21% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 27% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 88% of the people.

PeoplePay here
Graphic Designers23,48051%25 million$64K
Interior Designers30,10013%8 million$68K
Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel5,57043%5 million$80K
Office Clerks, General4,16054%4.7 million$44K
General and Operations Managers9,65023%4.6 million$112K
Project Management Specialists5,70033%3.9 million$86K
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks2,07078%3.3 million$52K
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive2,96043%2.6 million$50K
Customer Service Representatives1,37064%1.8 million$53K
Art Directors3,07027%1.7 million$108K
Printing Press Operators2,68024%1.3 million$43K
Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks77053%847,246$45K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 102 smaller jobs (17,840 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 95% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

  1. Use computer-aided drafting (CAD) and related software to produce construction documents.Interior Designers
    11 million hours98% of the task within reach
  2. Select or design, and purchase furnishings, art work, and accessories.Interior Designers
    8.8 million hours96% of the task within reach
  3. Create designs, concepts, and sample layouts, based on knowledge of layout principles and esthetic design concepts.Graphic Designers
    8.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
  4. Develop graphics and layouts for product illustrations, company logos, and Web sites.Graphic Designers
    8.3 million hours99% of the task within reach
  5. Design plans to be safe and to be compliant with the American Disabilities Act (ADA).Interior Designers
    6.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
  6. Formulate environmental plan to be practical, esthetic, and conducive to intended purposes, such as raising productivity or selling merchandise.Interior Designers
    6.3 million hours94% of the task within reach
  7. Design spaces to be environmentally friendly, using sustainable, recycled materials when feasible.Interior Designers
    6.1 million hours96% of the task within reach
  8. Use computer software to generate new images.Graphic Designers
    5.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
  9. Determine size and arrangement of illustrative material and copy, and select style and size of type.Graphic Designers
    5.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
  10. Coordinate with other professionals, such as contractors, architects, engineers, and plumbers, to ensure job success.Interior Designers
    4.5 million hours100% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

Next to this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works