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Commercial and Industrial Designers

Design and develop manufactured products, such as cars, home appliances, and children's toys. Combine artistic talent with research on product use, marketing, and materials to create the most functional and appealing product design.

33,490 people do this job in the US. $83,910 a year.

now
12%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 67%
  • 17%
  • 15%
4%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
May 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 67% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 7%. Today's estimate: 12%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 0% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 1% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 7% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 12% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 17 tasks from .

TaskKind
Modify and refine designs, using working models, to conform with customer specifications, production limitations, or changes in design trends.Done daily by most who do it. 13%3.3 h1.3 h to 1.3 work days32%Half by Jan 2027
Prepare sketches of ideas, detailed drawings, illustrations, artwork, or blueprints, using drafting instruments, paints and brushes, or computer-aided design equipment.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 13%4.2 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days23%Half by Mar 2027
Develop manufacturing procedures and monitor the manufacture of their designs in a factory to improve operations and product quality.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 13%1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work weekStays with people
Design graphic material for use as ornamentation, illustration, or advertising on manufactured materials and packaging or containers.Done more than monthly by most who do it.11%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027
Evaluate feasibility of design ideas, based on factors such as appearance, safety, function, serviceability, budget, production costs/methods, and market characteristics.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 10%3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days21%Half by May 2027
Direct and coordinate the fabrication of models or samples and the drafting of working drawings and specification sheets from sketches.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 8%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work daysStays with people
Participate in new product planning or market research, including studying the potential need for new products.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 7%1 work day3.3 h to 2.5 work days5%Half by Jul 2027
Investigate product characteristics such as the product's safety and handling qualities, its market appeal, how efficiently it can be produced, and ways of distributing, using, and maintaining it.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 6%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027
Research production specifications, costs, production materials, and manufacturing methods and provide cost estimates and itemized production requirements.Done daily by most who do it. 4%5 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days17%Half by Apr 2027
Confer with engineering, marketing, production, or sales departments, or with customers, to establish and evaluate design concepts for manufactured products.Done daily by most who do it. 3%1.7 h38 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Present designs and reports to customers or design committees for approval and discuss need for modification.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 3%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Coordinate the look and function of product lines.Done more than yearly by most who do it.2%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days8%Half by Sep 2027

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.