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Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic

Lay out, machine, fit, and assemble castings and parts to metal or plastic foundry patterns, core boxes, or match plates.

1,470 people do this job in the US. $58,000 a year.

now
16%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 35%
  • 0%
  • 65%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
November 2026

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 35% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 16%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 3% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 3% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 12% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 16% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 15 tasks from .

TaskKind
Design and create templates, patterns, or coreboxes according to work orders, sample parts, or mockups.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 21%6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work daysStays with people
Program computerized numerical control machine tools.Done hourly or more by most who do it.15%2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h46%Half by Oct 2026
Set up and operate machine tools, such as milling machines, lathes, drill presses, and grinders, to machine castings or patterns.Done daily by most who do it. 14%2.5 h38 min to 1 work dayStays with people
Create computer models of patterns or parts, using modeling software.Done daily by most who do it.12%4.2 h1.3 h to 1.7 work days19%Half by Apr 2027
Construct platforms, fixtures, and jigs for holding and placing patterns.Done daily by most who do it. 9%3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work daysStays with people
Read and interpret blueprints or drawings of parts to be cast or patterns to be made, compute dimensions, and plan operational sequences.Done daily by most who do it. 7%50 min17 min to 2.5 h87%Half by now
Assemble pattern sections, using hand tools, bolts, screws, rivets, glue, or welding equipment.Done daily by most who do it. 6%1.3 h25 min to 5 hStays with people
Verify conformance of patterns or template dimensions to specifications, using measuring instruments such as calipers, scales, and micrometers.Done daily by most who do it. 4%25 min13 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Clean and finish patterns or templates, using emery cloths, files, scrapers, and power grinders.Done daily by most who do it. 3%1.1 h17 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Repair and rework templates and patterns.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 3%1.7 h25 min to 6.7 hStays with people
Lay out and draw or scribe patterns onto material, using compasses, protractors, rulers, scribes, or other instruments.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 2%1.3 h17 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Paint or lacquer patterns.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 1%50 min17 min to 1.7 hStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).