Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic
In short: today's best AI models could do about 31% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 35% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 65% of the time, stays with people.
Lay out, machine, fit, and assemble castings and parts to metal or plastic foundry patterns, core boxes, or match plates.
1,470 people do this job in the US. $58,000 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on13 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet1 h
- Stays with people26 h
Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 13 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 1 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 26 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Program computerized numerical control machine tools (about 6 h); Create computer models of patterns or parts, using modeling software (about 4 h); Read and interpret blueprints or drawings of parts to be cast or patterns to be made, compute dimensions, and plan operational sequences (about 3 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 35%
- 0%
- 65%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 31%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 15 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.012% to none (released February and March 2025); 0.0021% to none (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.012% | 508 of 708 | 1 of 15 |
| Released March 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.0021% | 624 of 655 | 1 of 15 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0019% | 651 of 672 | 1 of 15 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 75% of this job's working time as physical work. For 75% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 75% in a purpose-built cell. 0.75 of 3, the 239th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 25%
- In a purpose-built cell 75%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 15 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Design and create templates, patterns, or coreboxes according to work orders, sample parts, or mockups.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Hoosier Pattern CNC milling / 5-axis machining (pattern shop tooling production) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 21% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 4.2 work days | Stays with people | |
| Program computerized numerical control machine tools.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 15% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | 96%Half by now | |
| Set up and operate machine tools, such as milling machines, lathes, drill presses, and grinders, to machine castings or patterns.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, FANUC R-2000iB / LR Mate machine tending cells (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 14% | 2.5 h38 min to 1 work day | Stays with people | |
| Create computer models of patterns or parts, using modeling software.Done daily by most who do it. | 12% | 4.2 h1.3 h to 1.7 work days | 77%Half by now | |
| Construct platforms, fixtures, and jigs for holding and placing patterns.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Hadrian automated factory (Torrance/Los Angeles) with Opus software, CNC machines and robotic arms (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | Stays with people | |
| Read and interpret blueprints or drawings of parts to be cast or patterns to be made, compute dimensions, and plan operational sequences.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Assemble pattern sections, using hand tools, bolts, screws, rivets, glue, or welding equipment.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, ASG AX-10 robotic screwdriving assembly cell (ASG, a Division of Jergens Inc.) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.3 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Verify conformance of patterns or template dimensions to specifications, using measuring instruments such as calipers, scales, and micrometers.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Renishaw high-accuracy machine tool touch probes (RENGAGE / Inspection Plus, Productivity+) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 25 min13 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Clean and finish patterns or templates, using emery cloths, files, scrapers, and power grinders.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, MESH MiniMAC robotic grinding cell (FANUC M20iD-35) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 1.1 h17 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Repair and rework templates and patterns.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, DMG MORI LASERTEC 65 / 125 3D hybrid (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 1.7 h25 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Lay out and draw or scribe patterns onto material, using compasses, protractors, rulers, scribes, or other instruments.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Peddinghaus HSFDB-B / FPB-1800 CNC plate processor with SignoScript carbide scribing (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 1.3 h17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Paint or lacquer patterns.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, FANUC P-350iA/45 paint robot (with Sames Kremlin applicators) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 1% | 50 min17 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers51% now, 52% by 2028
- Patternmakers, Wood12% now, 12% by 2028
- Tool and Die Makers31% now, 39% by 2028
- Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic13% now, 13% by 2028
- Model Makers, Metal and Plastic22% now, 22% by 2028
- Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic0% now, 0% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 31% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 35% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Program computerized numerical control machine tools (96% of the task's time now); Create computer models of patterns or parts, using modeling software (77% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Read and interpret blueprints or drawings of parts to be cast or patterns to be made, compute dimensions, and plan operational sequences (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Design and create templates, patterns, or coreboxes according to work orders, sample parts, or mockups; Set up and operate machine tools, such as milling machines, lathes, drill presses, and grinders, to machine castings or patterns; and Construct platforms, fixtures, and jigs for holding and placing patterns. Together such tasks are about 65% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 75% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 75% of the working time. Its index is 0.75 of 3. One example: Hoosier Pattern CNC milling / 5-axis machining (pattern shop tooling production) for "design and create templates, patterns, or coreboxes according to work orders, sample parts, or mockups". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 15 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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