Patternmakers, Wood
In short: today's best AI models could do about 12% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 88% of the time, stays with people.
Plan, lay out, and construct wooden unit or sectional patterns used in forming sand molds for castings.
220 people do this job in the US. $49,630 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on5 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people35 h
Patternmakers, Wood, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 5 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 35 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Read blueprints, drawings, or written specifications to determine sizes and shapes of patterns and required machine setups (about 2 h); Estimate costs for patternmaking jobs (about 2 h); Compute dimensions, areas, volumes, and weights (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 12%
- 0%
- 88%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 12%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.021% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 322nd largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 20 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.46% to 0.25% (released February and March 2025); 0.17% to 0.039% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.023% to 0.021% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.46% | 41 of 708 | 2 of 20 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.25% | 81 of 703 | 2 of 20 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.17% | 105 of 655 | 2 of 20 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.05% | 237 of 672 | 2 of 20 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.039% | 280 of 677 | 2 of 20 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.023% | 315 of 434 | 1 of 20 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.021% | 322 of 447 | 1 of 20 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 86% of this job's working time as physical work. For 82% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 82% in a purpose-built cell. 0.82 of 3, the 217th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 14%
- No robot shown 4%
- In a purpose-built cell 82%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 20 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construct wooden models, templates, full scale mock-ups, jigs, or molds for shaping parts of products.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Biesse Materia CL and CMS Antares 5-axis CNC routers at Simpson Patterns (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 19% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | Stays with people | |
| Fit, fasten, and assemble wood parts together to form patterns, models, or sections, using glue, nails, dowels, bolts, and screws.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, HOMAG DRILLTEQ D-110 / D-200 CNC drilling and dowel inserting machines (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 13% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Trim, smooth, and shape surfaces, and plane, shave, file, scrape, and sand models to attain specified shapes, using hand tools.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Omnirobotic PSA-80 PRO (AutonomyOS) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 12% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Set up, operate, and adjust a variety of woodworking machines such as bandsaws and lathes to cut and shape sections, parts, and patterns, according to specifications.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, HOMAG SAWTEQ B-300 flexTec robot saw cell at PAN + ARMBRUSTER (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 11% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Lay out patterns on wood stock and draw outlines of units, sectional patterns, or full-scale mock-ups of products, based on blueprint specifications and sketches, and using marking and measuring devices.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, ShopBot CNC router with Plotter Pen accessory (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.3 h17 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Read blueprints, drawings, or written specifications to determine sizes and shapes of patterns and required machine setups.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 6% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Correct patterns to compensate for defects in castings.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Thermwood Model 65 / Model 90 five-axis CNC routers (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Repair broken or damaged patterns.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Divide patterns into sections according to shapes of castings to facilitate removal of patterns from molds.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, CNC machining of cope and drag pattern halves (Industrial Pattern & Mfg. pattern shop) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.1 h17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Estimate costs for patternmaking jobs.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 4% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | 99%Half by now | |
| Finish completed products or models with shellac, lacquer, wax, or paint.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, GrayMatter Robotics Scan&Spray / GMR-AI robotic cells (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Glue fillets along interior angles of patterns.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Broetje-Automation automated sealing system (industrial robot / cobot cell, SOUL OLPS programming) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 2% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic31% now, 35% by 2028
- Model Makers, Wood17% now, 18% by 2028
- Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic13% now, 13% by 2028
- Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers51% now, 52% by 2028
- Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters4% now, 4% by 2028
- Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic0% now, 0% by 2028
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Patternmakers, Wood is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 12% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 12% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Patternmakers, Wood come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Read blueprints, drawings, or written specifications to determine sizes and shapes of patterns and required machine setups (100% of the task's time now); Estimate costs for patternmaking jobs (99% of the task's time now); and Compute dimensions, areas, volumes, and weights (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Patternmakers, Wood stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Construct wooden models, templates, full scale mock-ups, jigs, or molds for shaping parts of products; Fit, fasten, and assemble wood parts together to form patterns, models, or sections, using glue, nails, dowels, bolts, and screws; and Trim, smooth, and shape surfaces, and plane, shave, file, scrape, and sand models to attain specified shapes, using hand tools. Together such tasks are about 88% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Patternmakers, Wood?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.021% went to this job's tasks, the 322nd largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 20 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 3%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Patternmakers, Wood?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 86% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 82% of the working time. Its index is 0.82 of 3. One example: Biesse Materia CL and CMS Antares 5-axis CNC routers at Simpson Patterns for "construct wooden models, templates, full scale mock-ups, jigs, or molds for shaping parts of products". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 20 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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