Model Makers, Wood
In short: today's best AI models could do about 17% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 18% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 82% of the time, stays with people.
Construct full-size and scale wooden precision models of products. Includes wood jig builders and loft workers.
280 people do this job in the US. $56,550 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on7 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people33 h
Model Makers, Wood, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 7 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 33 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Plan, lay out, and draw outlines of units, sectional patterns, or full-scale mock-ups of products (about 4 h); Read blueprints, drawings, or written specifications, and consult with designers to determine sizes and shapes of patterns and required machine setups (about 3 h); Maintain pattern records for reference (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 18%
- 0%
- 82%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 10%. Today's estimate: 17%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 14 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.012% to 0.0031% (released February and March 2025).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.012% | 513 of 708 | 1 of 14 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.0031% | 625 of 703 | 1 of 14 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.0044% | 583 of 672 | 1 of 14 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 14 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 89% of this job's working time as physical work. For 89% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 82% in a purpose-built cell, 8% in a structured facility. 0.97 of 3, the 131st highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 11%
- In a purpose-built cell 82%
- In a structured facility 8%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 14 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construct wooden models, patterns, templates, full scale mock-ups, and molds for parts of products and production tools.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Biesse Rover K / Rover FT nested-base CNC cell (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 25% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week | Stays with people | |
| Trim, smooth, and shape surfaces, and plane, shave, file, scrape, and sand models to attain specified shapes, using hand tools.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Cohesive Robotics Smart Finishing Robotic Workcell — Woodworker Edition (Argus OS) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 13% | 1.7 h25 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Fit, fasten, and assemble wood parts together to form patterns, models, or sections, using glue, nails, dowels, bolts, screws, and other fasteners.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, TIM robotic timber construction platform (ICD/ITKE, University of Stuttgart) — BUGA Wood Pavilion prefabrication (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 1.7 h25 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Plan, lay out, and draw outlines of units, sectional patterns, or full-scale mock-ups of products.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Zünd G3/D3/Q-Line cutter with DRAWTO marking-and-drawing module (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 2.1 h38 min to 6.7 h | 93%Half by now | |
| Build jigs that can be used as guides for assembling oversized or special types of box shooks.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, WEINMANN FRAMETEQ F-700 framing station (HOMAG) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Set up, operate, and adjust a variety of woodworking machines such as bandsaws and planers to cut and shape sections, parts, and patterns, according to specifications.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Weinig SOLID CUT TF 2000 series optimizing cross-cut saw (Michael Weinig AG) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Read blueprints, drawings, or written specifications, and consult with designers to determine sizes and shapes of patterns and required machine setups.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Fabricate work aids such as scrapers or templates.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, CNC router (shop-class, as demonstrated by Woodworker's Journal) (Various) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Finish patterns or models with protective or decorative coatings such as shellac, lacquer, or wax.Done yearly or less by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Cefla iGiottoApp with C-Vision 3D reading system (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Select wooden stock, determine layouts, and mark layouts of parts on stock, using precision equipment such as scribers, squares, and protractors.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, MiTek MatchPoint BLADE II linear saw (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 50 min17 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Verify dimensions and contours of models during hand-forming processes, using templates and measuring devices.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, ZEISS ScanCobot (ATOS Q + collaborative robot) (Carl Zeiss Industrielle Messtechnik) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 25 min8 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Maintain pattern records for reference.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 1% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | 100%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Model Makers, Wood is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 17% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 18% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Model Makers, Wood come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Plan, lay out, and draw outlines of units, sectional patterns, or full-scale mock-ups of products (93% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Read blueprints, drawings, or written specifications, and consult with designers to determine sizes and shapes of patterns and required machine setups (100% of the task's time now); and Maintain pattern records for reference (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Model Makers, Wood stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Construct wooden models, patterns, templates, full scale mock-ups, and molds for parts of products and production tools; Trim, smooth, and shape surfaces, and plane, shave, file, scrape, and sand models to attain specified shapes, using hand tools; and Fit, fasten, and assemble wood parts together to form patterns, models, or sections, using glue, nails, dowels, bolts, screws, and other fasteners. Together such tasks are about 82% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Model Makers, Wood?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Model Makers, Wood?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 89% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 89% of the working time, 8% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.97 of 3. One example: ZEISS ScanCobot (ATOS Q + collaborative robot) for "verify dimensions and contours of models during hand-forming processes, using templates and measuring devices". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 14 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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