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Purchasing Managers

Plan, direct, or coordinate the activities of buyers, purchasing officers, and related workers involved in purchasing materials, products, and services. Includes wholesale or retail trade merchandising managers and procurement managers.

84,320 people do this job in the US. $148,080 a year.

now
17%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 80%
  • 20%
  • 0%
20%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
August 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 80% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 17%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 3% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 3% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 12% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 17% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 18 tasks from .

TaskKind
Develop and implement purchasing and contract management instructions, policies, and procedures.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 19%1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days2%Half by Feb 2028
Develop cost reduction strategies and savings plans.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 19%1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days2%Half by Feb 2028
Represent companies in negotiating contracts and formulating policies with suppliers.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 10%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.1 work daysStays with people
Analyze market and delivery systems to assess present and future material availability.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 9%6.7 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days9%Half by Aug 2027
Direct and coordinate activities of personnel engaged in buying, selling, and distributing materials, equipment, machinery, and supplies.Done daily by most who do it. 9%1.7 h25 min to 5 hStays with people
Locate vendors of materials, equipment or supplies, and interview them to determine product availability and terms of sales.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.7%3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days25%Half by Mar 2027
Prepare reports regarding market conditions and merchandise costs.Done more than yearly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.4%6.7 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days9%Half by Jul 2027
Administer online purchasing systems.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.4%1.3 h25 min to 4.2 h69%Half by now
Control purchasing department budgets.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 3%3.3 h1.7 h to 1.3 work days38%Half by Nov 2026
Review, evaluate, and approve specifications for issuing and awarding bids.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.3%2.5 h1.3 h to 5 h70%Half by now
Participate in the development of specifications for equipment, products, or substitute materials.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 3%3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h49%Half by now
Review purchase order claims and contracts for conformance to company policy.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 2%1.7 h25 min to 3.3 h65%Half by now

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.