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Manufacturing Engineers

Design, integrate, or improve manufacturing systems or related processes. May work with commercial or industrial designers to refine product designs to increase producibility and decrease costs.

$102,440 a year (for the broader BLS group this job sits in).

now
14%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 94%
  • 2%
  • 4%
4%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
October 2027

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 94% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 8%. Today's estimate: 14%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 0% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 0% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 1% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 2% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 8% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 14% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 24 tasks from .

TaskKind
Apply continuous improvement methods, such as lean manufacturing, to enhance manufacturing quality, reliability, or cost-effectiveness.Done daily by most who do it. 15%1.7 work days3.3 h to 1.3 work weeks2%Half by May 2028
Troubleshoot new or existing product problems involving designs, materials, or processes.Done several times a day by most who do it. 11%4.2 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days20%Half by Apr 2027
Identify opportunities or implement changes to improve manufacturing processes or products or to reduce costs, using knowledge of fabrication processes, tooling and production equipment, assembly methods, quality control standards, or product design, materials and parts.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 9%6.7 h2.5 h to 4.2 work days8%Half by Oct 2027
Incorporate new manufacturing methods or processes to improve existing operations.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 9%3.3 work days6.7 h to 2 work weeks0%Half by Oct 2028
Investigate or resolve operational problems, such as material use variances or bottlenecks.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 9%3.3 h1.3 h to 1.7 work days27%Half by Mar 2027
Develop sustainable manufacturing technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, minimize raw material use, replace toxic materials with non-toxic materials, replace non-renewable materials with renewable materials, or reduce waste.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 8%4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks0%Half by Apr 2029
Provide technical expertise or support related to manufacturing.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task.7%1.7 h25 min to 5 h51%Half by now
Prepare reports summarizing information or trends related to manufacturing performance.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 4%4.2 h1.7 h to 1 work day30%Half by Dec 2026
Determine root causes of failures or recommend changes in designs, tolerances, or processing methods, using statistical procedures.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 4%6.7 h2.5 h to 3.3 work days9%Half by Sep 2027
Design tests of finished products or process capabilities to establish standards or validate process requirements.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 3%1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week2%Half by Apr 2028
Prepare documentation for new manufacturing processes or engineering procedures.Done more than monthly by most who do it. 3%5 h2.1 h to 2.5 work days15%Half by May 2027
Design layout of equipment or workspaces to achieve maximum efficiency.Done more than yearly by most who do it. 2%1.7 work days3.3 h to 1 work week2%Half by Apr 2028

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.