Subsector, 561
Administrative and Support Services
8,599,170 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $55,920 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 4.6 billion hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 31%
- 18%
- 51%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 20% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 8,096,207 people in jobs so far, 94% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 2.7 billion hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 1.8 billion hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 1.5 billion hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 19%
- 11%
- 9%
- 9%
- 51%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 8,096,207 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft4,952,863 (61%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself2,523,505 (31%)
- Judgment where errors are severe2,489,957 (31%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts1,750,013 (22%)
- Running AI inside the business systems1,022,710 (13%)
- The conversations1,019,087 (13%)
- Signing off under your license358,688 (4%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization276,100 (3%)
- Handling protected records53,700 (1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 27%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 55% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 43% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 23% in a purpose-built cell, 19% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.64 of 3.
- Not physical 45%
- No robot shown 12%
- In a purpose-built cell 23%
- In a structured facility 19%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 74% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer Service Representatives | 366,290 | 64% | 491 million | $38K |
| Security Guards | 797,140 | 14% | 235 million | $37K |
| Office Clerks, General | 185,350 | 56% | 218 million | $43K |
| General and Operations Managers | 229,960 | 45% | 215 million | $100K |
| Human Resources Specialists | 158,740 | 63% | 207 million | $61K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 151,970 | 59% | 186 million | $63K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 83,290 | 88% | 153 million | $50K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 102,830 | 59% | 126 million | $46K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 95,250 | 54% | 108 million | $62K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 474,440 | 9% | 89 million | $36K |
| Registered Nurses | 112,150 | 37% | 86 million | $91K |
| Project Management Specialists | 63,850 | 58% | 77 million | $99K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 541 smaller jobs (2,167,490 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Write reports of daily activities and irregularities, such as equipment or property damage, theft, presence of unauthorized persons, or unusual occurrences.Security Guards151 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives83 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives76 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand66 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Develop sales presentations or proposals to explain service specifications.Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel65 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Check to ensure that appropriate changes were made to resolve customers' problems.Customer Service Representatives59 million hours80% of the task within reach
- Keep records of customer interactions or transactions, recording details of inquiries, complaints, or comments, as well as actions taken.Customer Service Representatives55 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General46 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Review insurance policy terms to determine whether a particular loss is covered by insurance.Customer Service Representatives45 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Resolve customers' service or billing complaints by performing activities such as exchanging merchandise, refunding money, or adjusting bills.Customer Service Representatives39 million hours50% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Inside this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Employment Services3,301,980 people27% now, 32% by 2028
- Services to Buildings and Dwellings2,310,020 people13% now, 14% by 2028
- Investigation and Security Services1,061,550 people20% now, 21% by 2028
- Business Support Services652,900 people55% now, 60% by 2028
- Office Administrative Services553,120 people54% now, 67% by 2028
- Other Support Services328,520 people31% now, 35% by 2028
- Facilities Support Services200,420 people21% now, 25% by 2028
- Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services190,670 people50% now, 58% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Administrative and Support Services is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 27% of the paid hours in Administrative and Support Services are within reach of AI models now and 31% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (30% to 31% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Administrative and Support Services carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Customer Service Representatives (366,290 people, 64% of their time, about 491 million hours a year); Security Guards (797,140 people, 14% of their time, about 235 million hours a year); and Office Clerks, General (185,350 people, 56% of their time, about 218 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Administrative and Support Services carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Write reports of daily activities and irregularities, such as equipment or property damage, theft, presence of unauthorized persons, or unusual occurrences (Security Guards, about 151 million hours a year); Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills (Customer Service Representatives, about 83 million hours a year); and Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers (Customer Service Representatives, about 76 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Administrative and Support Services learn first?
- Among the 8,096,207 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (4,952,863 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (2,523,505 people); and judgment where errors are severe (2,489,957 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 69% of their working time stays with people, 22% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Administrative and Support Services (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 94% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.