Metro area, Pennsylvania
Lancaster, PA
252,230 people work in this area, at mean pay of $59,620 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 136 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 32%
- 22%
- 47%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 22% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 233,718 people in jobs so far, 93% of the area's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 85 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 47 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 32 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 21%
- 10%
- 7%
- 15%
- 46%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 233,718 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft132,520 (57%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself74,128 (32%)
- Judgment where errors are severe67,768 (29%)
- The conversations65,480 (28%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts56,549 (24%)
- Signing off under your license24,690 (11%)
- Running AI inside the business systems19,640 (8%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization9,900 (4%)
- Handling protected records650 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 27%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 53% of the working time of the people in this area as physical work. For 40% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 27% in a purpose-built cell, 12% in a structured facility, 1% in any setting. 0.54 of 3.
- Not physical 47%
- No robot shown 13%
- In a purpose-built cell 27%
- In a structured facility 12%
- In any setting 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 40 largest jobs hold 53% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General and Operations Managers | 6,990 | 45% | 6.5 million | $99K |
| Office Clerks, General | 4,330 | 56% | 5.1 million | $45K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 3,440 | 64% | 4.6 million | $44K |
| Registered Nurses | 5,640 | 37% | 4.3 million | $90K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2,190 | 88% | 4 million | $48K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 2,960 | 59% | 3.6 million | $46K |
| Retail Salespersons | 7,400 | 23% | 3.5 million | $30K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 2,790 | 46% | 2.7 million | $64K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 5,860 | 19% | 2.4 million | $36K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 1,730 | 60% | 2.1 million | $37K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 1,890 | 54% | 2.1 million | $64K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 2,080 | 49% | 2.1 million | $46K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 424 smaller jobs (112,780 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 95% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses945,440 hours60% of the task within reach
- Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices.Retail Salespersons896,661 hours50% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers893,928 hours40% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers854,614 hours100% of the task within reach
- Prepare staff work schedules and assign specific duties.General and Operations Managers805,123 hours80% of the task within reach
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand798,056 hours100% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives778,557 hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep periodic balance sheets of amounts and numbers of transactions.Cashiers776,346 hours100% of the task within reach
- Establish or implement departmental policies, goals, objectives, or procedures in conjunction with board members, organization officials, or staff members.General and Operations Managers752,965 hours60% of the task within reach
The regional report on Lancaster, PA
This page lists the largest jobs. The scan reads the whole workforce: every occupation BLS publishes here that the site has task data for, 95% of the people, at their local headcount and pay. The preview is free. The full report ($249, or included in Pro) is the report for a workforce board, a college or an economic development team: every occupation and the tasks behind its hours, what handing the work over would take, what changes for the people in each job and what they would learn, with the workbook and the slides to cite. Dated, with the method. For workforce boards and colleges
See what it holds first: the full report for Worcester, MA, Excel and slides.
Other areas in Pennsylvania
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD2,897,830 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Pittsburgh, PA1,114,490 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ377,180 people27% now, 32% by 2028
- Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA335,010 people30% now, 36% by 2028
- Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA255,620 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Central Pennsylvania nonmetropolitan area187,680 people26% now, 29% by 2028
- York-Hanover, PA183,590 people27% now, 31% by 2028
- Reading, PA174,670 people27% now, 31% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this area
- How much of the work in Lancaster, PA is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 27% of the paid hours in Lancaster, PA are within reach of AI models now and 31% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Lancaster, PA carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): General and Operations Managers (6,990 people, 45% of their time, about 6.5 million hours a year); Office Clerks, General (4,330 people, 56% of their time, about 5.1 million hours a year); and Customer Service Representatives (3,440 people, 64% of their time, about 4.6 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Lancaster, PA carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports (Office Clerks, General, about 1.1 million hours a year); Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals (Registered Nurses, about 945,440 hours a year); and Maintain knowledge of current sales and promotions, policies regarding payment and exchanges, and security practices (Retail Salespersons, about 896,661 hours a year).
- What would people working in Lancaster, PA learn first?
- Among the 233,718 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (132,520 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (74,128 people); and judgment where errors are severe (67,768 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 68% of their working time stays with people, 24% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Lancaster, PA (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The area's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 95% of its people, and 93% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.