Metro area, Pennsylvania
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
335,010 people work in this area, at mean pay of $63,660 a year (BLS, May 2025), in every industry. What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 147 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 38%
- 17%
- 45%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this area's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 2%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 19%. Today's estimate: 22%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 52% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Clerks, General | 6,380 | 54% | 7.2 million | $44K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 5,040 | 64% | 6.8 million | $43K |
| Registered Nurses | 9,210 | 28% | 5.3 million | $97K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 2,450 | 78% | 4 million | $49K |
| General and Operations Managers | 8,180 | 23% | 3.9 million | $102K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 3,770 | 43% | 3.3 million | $47K |
| Stockers and Order Fillers | 8,240 | 19% | 3.3 million | $37K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 4,510 | 35% | 3.2 million | $66K |
| Retail Salespersons | 7,640 | 19% | 3.1 million | $31K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 2,240 | 53% | 2.5 million | $46K |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 1,970 | 59% | 2.4 million | $37K |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 11,760 | 9% | 2.2 million | $44K |
People: BLS counts for this area, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this area, else its mean, else the national median. 479 smaller jobs (156,150 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the area's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole area, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Record numbers of units handled or moved, using daily production sheets or work tickets.Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General1.6 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative or managerial functions, such as taking responsibility for a unit's staff, budget, planning, or long-range goals.Registered Nurses1.5 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Develop and implement records management program for filing, protection, and retrieval of records, and assure compliance with program.Management Analysts1.2 million hours76% of the task within reach
- Obtain and examine all relevant information to assess validity of complaints and to determine possible causes, such as extreme weather conditions that could increase utility bills.Customer Service Representatives1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain accurate, detailed reports and records.Registered Nurses1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete contract forms, prepare change of address records, or issue service discontinuance orders, using computers.Customer Service Representatives1.1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or departments concerned with the production, pricing, sales, or distribution of products.General and Operations Managers1 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Set prices or credit terms for goods or services, based on forecasts of customer demand.General and Operations Managers999,972 hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze data gathered and develop solutions or alternative methods of proceeding.Management Analysts998,060 hours98% of the task within reach
Other areas in Pennsylvania
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD2,897,830 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- Pittsburgh, PA1,114,490 people22% now, 37% by 2028
- Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ377,180 people21% now, 33% by 2028
- Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA255,620 people21% now, 32% by 2028
- Lancaster, PA252,230 people21% now, 32% by 2028
- Central Pennsylvania nonmetropolitan area187,680 people21% now, 30% by 2028
- York-Hanover, PA183,590 people21% now, 32% by 2028
- Reading, PA174,670 people21% now, 32% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this area; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the area's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works