Poets, Lyricists and Creative Writers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 47% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 95% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 3% of the time, stays with people.
Create original written works, such as scripts, essays, prose, poetry or song lyrics, for publication or performance.
$76,910 a year (for the broader BLS group this job sits in).
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on19 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet20 h
- Stays with people1 h
Poets, Lyricists and Creative Writers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 19 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 20 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 1 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Develop factors such as themes, plots, characterizations, psychological analyses, historical environments, action, and dialogue to create material (about 6 h); Choose subject matter and suitable form to express personal feelings and experiences or ideas, or to narrate stories or events (about 3 h); Write narrative, dramatic, lyric, or other types of poetry for publication (about 3 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 97%
- 3%
- 0%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 5%. Today's estimate: 47%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 1.6% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 13th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 8 of its 16 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.76% to 0.74% (released February and March 2025); 0.81% to 1.1% (August 2025 to February 2026); 1.7% to 1.6% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.76% | 21 of 708 | 11 of 16 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.74% | 26 of 703 | 11 of 16 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.81% | 24 of 655 | 9 of 16 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 1.6% | 13 of 672 | 10 of 16 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 1.1% | 20 of 677 | 10 of 16 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 1.7% | 13 of 434 | 8 of 16 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 1.6% | 13 of 447 | 8 of 16 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates almost none of this job's working time as physical work, so robots do not reach it.
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 16 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Write narrative, dramatic, lyric, or other types of poetry for publication.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 19% | 1.3 work days2.5 h to 4.2 work days | 36%Half by Feb 2027 | |
| Write fiction or nonfiction prose, such as short stories, novels, biographies, articles, descriptive or critical analyses, and essays.Done daily by most who do it. | 19% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | 15%Half by Oct 2027 | |
| Develop factors such as themes, plots, characterizations, psychological analyses, historical environments, action, and dialogue to create material.Done daily by most who do it. | 19% | 6.7 h2.5 h to 2.1 work days | 76%Half by now | |
| Revise written material to meet personal standards and to satisfy needs of clients, publishers, directors, or producers.Done several times a day by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 9% | 3.3 h50 min to 2.1 work days | 63%Half by now | |
| Conduct research to obtain factual information and authentic detail, using sources such as newspaper accounts, diaries, and interviews.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 8% | 4.2 h50 min to 3.1 work days | 43%Half by Jan 2027 | |
| Choose subject matter and suitable form to express personal feelings and experiences or ideas, or to narrate stories or events.Done daily by most who do it. | 8% | 3.3 h50 min to 1 work day | 86%Half by now | |
| Write words to fit musical compositions, including lyrics for operas, musical plays, and choral works.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 1.7 work days2.5 h to 1.3 work weeks | 20%Half by Aug 2027 | |
| Plan project arrangements or outlines, and organize material accordingly.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 5% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | 71%Half by now | |
| Collaborate with other writers on specific projects.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 2% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | Stays with people | |
| Write humorous material for publication, or for performances such as comedy routines, gags, and comedy shows.Done more than yearly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 2% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 3.1 work days | 48%Half by now | |
| Adapt text to accommodate musical requirements of composers and singers.Done more than weekly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 1% | 3.3 h1.3 h to 1.3 work days | 91%Half by now | |
| Prepare works in appropriate format for publication, and send them to publishers or producers.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 0.8% | 1.3 h25 min to 4.2 h | 98%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.
- Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers6,730 people
- Advertising, Public Relations, and Related Services5,910 people
- Newspaper, Periodical, Book, and Directory Publishers5,270 people
- Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services3,880 people
- Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools2,310 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Poets, Lyricists and Creative Writers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 47% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 95% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (82% to 97% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Poets, Lyricists and Creative Writers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Develop factors such as themes, plots, characterizations, psychological analyses, historical environments, action, and dialogue to create material (76% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Choose subject matter and suitable form to express personal feelings and experiences or ideas, or to narrate stories or events (86% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Write narrative, dramatic, lyric, or other types of poetry for publication (36% of the task's time now, 99% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Poets, Lyricists and Creative Writers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Collaborate with other writers on specific projects; Teach writing classes; and Confer with clients, editors, publishers, or producers to discuss changes or revisions to written material. Together such tasks are about 3% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Poets, Lyricists and Creative Writers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 1.6% went to this job's tasks, the 13th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 8 of its 16 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 25%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Poets, Lyricists and Creative Writers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds almost none of the working time is physical work, so robots do not reach it.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 16 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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