Industry group, 7115
Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers
67,580 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $78,370 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 30 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 53%
- 14%
- 33%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 29% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 18,536 people in jobs so far, 27% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 12 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 4.7 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 6.1 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 37%
- 13%
- 18%
- 7%
- 24%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 18,536 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts12,426 (67%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself11,866 (64%)
- The hands-on craft4,210 (23%)
- The conversations2,880 (16%)
- Running AI inside the business systems2,220 (12%)
- Judgment where errors are severe1,300 (7%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization40 (under 1%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 16%. Today's estimate: 39%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 29% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 21% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 17% in a purpose-built cell, 4% in a structured facility. 0.26 of 3.
- Not physical 71%
- No robot shown 8%
- In a purpose-built cell 17%
- In a structured facility 4%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 31 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Writers and Authors | 6,730 | 53% | 7.4 million | $60K |
| General and Operations Managers | 4,090 | 45% | 3.8 million | $98K |
| Audio and Video Technicians | 2,030 | 48% | 2 million | $54K |
| Fine Artists, Including Painters, Sculptors, and Illustrators | 3,150 | 29% | 1.9 million | $50K |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 1,400 | 59% | 1.7 million | $50K |
| Disc Jockeys, Except Radio | 3,490 | 22% | 1.6 million | $45K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 870 | 59% | 1.1 million | $52K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 560 | 88% | 1 million | $51K |
| Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 830 | 50% | 854,597 | $48K |
| Editors | 640 | 64% | 845,315 | $80K |
| Broadcast Announcers and Radio Disc Jockeys | 470 | 76% | 743,956 | $122K |
| Craft Artists | 1,330 | 23% | 625,209 | $47K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 39 smaller jobs (1,800 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 55% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Write fiction or nonfiction prose, such as short stories, novels, biographies, articles, descriptive or critical analyses, and essays.Writers and Authors3 million hours92% of the task within reach
- Conduct research to obtain factual information and authentic detail, using sources such as newspaper accounts, diaries, and interviews.Writers and Authors1.8 million hours98% of the task within reach
- Write articles, bulletins, sales letters, speeches, and other related informative, marketing and promotional material.Writers and Authors1.7 million hours99% of the task within reach
- Write advertising material for use by publication, broadcast, or internet media to promote the sale of goods and services.Writers and Authors1.4 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Vary language and tone of messages based on product and medium.Writers and Authors1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Revise written material to meet personal standards and to satisfy needs of clients, publishers, directors, or producers.Writers and Authors1.2 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Integrate and develop visual elements, such as line, space, mass, color, and perspective, to produce desired effects, such as the illustration of ideas, emotions, or moods.Fine Artists, Including Painters, Sculptors, and Illustrators988,043 hours100% of the task within reach
- Edit or rewrite existing written material as necessary, and submit written material for approval by supervisor, editor, or publisher.Writers and Authors935,216 hours100% of the task within reach
- Create tailored playlists by aligning music with event functions.Disc Jockeys, Except Radio858,110 hours100% of the task within reach
- Collect and analyze data on customer demographics, preferences, needs, and buying habits to identify potential markets and factors affecting product demand.Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists525,865 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events194,390 people28% now, 33% by 2028
- Spectator Sports170,410 people29% now, 35% by 2028
- Performing Arts Companies141,340 people30% now, 38% by 2028
- Agents and Managers for Artists, Athletes, Entertainers, and Other Public Figures30,080 people59% now, 67% by 2028
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 39% of the paid hours in Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers are within reach of AI models now and 53% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (50% to 53% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Writers and Authors (6,730 people, 53% of their time, about 7.4 million hours a year); General and Operations Managers (4,090 people, 45% of their time, about 3.8 million hours a year); and Audio and Video Technicians (2,030 people, 48% of their time, about 2 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Write fiction or nonfiction prose, such as short stories, novels, biographies, articles, descriptive or critical analyses, and essays (Writers and Authors, about 3 million hours a year); Conduct research to obtain factual information and authentic detail, using sources such as newspaper accounts, diaries, and interviews (Writers and Authors, about 1.8 million hours a year); and Write articles, bulletins, sales letters, speeches, and other related informative, marketing and promotional material (Writers and Authors, about 1.7 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers learn first?
- Among the 18,536 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are briefing a model and checking its drafts (12,426 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (11,866 people); and the hands-on craft (4,210 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 49% of their working time stays with people, 35% becomes checking a model's work and 15% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 55% of its people, and 27% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.