Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians
In short: today's best AI models could do about 40% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 60% of the time, stays with people.
Diagnose and treat disorders requiring physiotherapy to provide physical, mental, and occupational rehabilitation.
$265,930 a year (for the broader BLS group this job sits in).
Reviewed on October 18, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work16 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people24 h
Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 16 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 24 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Develop rehabilitation plans (about 4 h, a person checks); Document exams and outcomes (about 3 h, a person checks); Manage disabling conditions (about 1 h, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 27%
- 13%
- 5%
- 25%
- 31%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 40% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 38%. Today's estimate: 40%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 15 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0076% to 0.012% (released February and March 2025); none to 0.0016% (August 2025 to February 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0076% | 562 of 708 | 2 of 15 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.012% | 486 of 703 | 2 of 15 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.0016% | 668 of 677 | 1 of 15 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 15 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 40% of this job's working time as physical work. For 0% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere. 0.00 of 3.
- Not physical 60%
- No robot shown 40%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
60% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Examine patients, the hands-on work, 13%
- Perform electrodiagnostic tests, the hands-on work, 10%
- Manage disabling conditions, the hands-on work, 7%
- Treat performance injuries, the hands-on work, 6%
- Conduct functional capacity tests, the hands-on work, 5%
- Develop rehabilitation plans, the in-person work, 4%
What becomes checking the machine
40% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Develop rehabilitation plans, a licensed person signs, 10%
- Document exams and outcomes, severe if wrong, 8%
- Manage disabling conditions, a licensed person signs, 3%
- Prescribe therapy services, a licensed person signs, 3%
- Perform electrodiagnostic tests, a licensed person signs, 3%
- Conduct functional capacity tests, a licensed person signs, 2%
What to learn
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Signing off under your license. Some tasks need a licensed, certified or sworn person to do or sign them. The license, and the judgment it stands for, stays with the person.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check or sign: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- Handling protected records. Much of the work touches protected personal records: knowing what may be shared with a model, and how, is part of the job.
- Dealing with people outside the organization. Customers, patients, suppliers or the public: trust with them is built by a person.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 15 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Develop comprehensive plans for immediate and long-term rehabilitation, including therapeutic exercise, speech and occupational therapy, counseling, cognitive retraining, patient, family or caregiver education, or community reintegration.Writing the plan from the record, with the patient and family consulted.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 14% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Documents 70%, in person 30% | 70%Desk part half by now |
| Perform electrodiagnosis, including electromyography, nerve conduction studies, or somatosensory evoked potentials of neuromuscular disorders or damage.Running the needle and nerve studies by hand and reading the traces.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 13% | 1.7 h50 min to 2.5 h | Hands-on 80%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Examine patients to assess mobility, strength, communication, or cognition.Hands-on examination with the patient, asking as it goes.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 13% | 29 min17 min to 1.1 h | Hands-on 70%, in person 30% | Stays with people |
| Provide inpatient or outpatient medical management of neuromuscular disorders, musculoskeletal trauma, acute and chronic pain, deformity or amputation, cardiac or pulmonary disease, or other disabling conditions.Seeing and treating the patient, with the record read and written.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 33 min17 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 40%, documents 30%, in person 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Document examination results, treatment plans, and patients' outcomes.Charting the findings, plans and outcomes.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 8% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Systems 100% | 100%Half by now |
| Conduct physical tests, such as functional capacity evaluations, to determine injured workers' capabilities to perform the physical demands of their jobs.Putting the worker through the physical tests and writing up what they can do.Done more than monthly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 2.1 h1.1 h to 3.3 h | Hands-on 50%, documents 30%, in person 20% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Diagnose or treat performance-related conditions, such as sports injuries or repetitive-motion injuries.Examining and treating the injury in the room, with the record.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 8% | 33 min17 min to 1.3 h | Hands-on 50%, in person 30%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Coordinate physical medicine and rehabilitation services with other medical activities.Arranging the service alongside the patient's other care, mostly by conversation.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Conversation 70%, documents 30% | 30%Desk part half by now |
| Monitor effectiveness of pain management interventions, such as medication or spinal injections.Reviewing the record and asking the patient how the treatment is working.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 5% | 17 min8 min to 33 min | Documents 50%, in person 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Consult or coordinate with other rehabilitative professionals, including physical and occupational therapists, rehabilitation nurses, speech pathologists, neuropsychologists, behavioral psychologists, social workers, or medical technicians.Team conferences in person and calls, around the record.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Conversation 40%, in person 40%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Assess characteristics of patients' pain, such as intensity, location, or duration, using standardized clinical measures.Asking and scoring the patient's pain in the room, then charting it.Done hourly or more by most who do it. | 3% | 8 min4 min to 17 min | In person 80%, systems 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Instruct interns and residents in the diagnosis and treatment of temporary or permanent physically disabling conditions.Teaching at the bedside and in the clinic, with some written material.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 3% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | In person 80%, documents 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025). Counts are for the broader BLS group this job sits in.
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 40% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 40% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Develop rehabilitation plans (70% of the task's time now); Document exams and outcomes (100% of the task's time now); and Manage disabling conditions (30% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Examine patients. Together such tasks are about 13% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are judgment where errors are severe; signing off under your license; and reviewing work you did not do yourself. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 60% of the working time stays with people, 40% becomes checking a model's work and 0% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 3%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Physicians?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 40% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 0% of the working time. Its index is 0.00 of 3. A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 15 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on October 18, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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