Historians
In short: today's best AI models could do about 26% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 71% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 19% of the time, stays with people.
Research, analyze, record, and interpret the past as recorded in sources, such as government and institutional records, newspapers and other periodicals, photographs, interviews, films, electronic media, and unpublished manuscripts, such as personal diaries and letters.
3,450 people do this job in the US. $76,750 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on10 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet22 h
- Stays with people8 h
Historians, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 10 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 22 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 8 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Organize data, and analyze and interpret its authenticity and relative significance (about 2 h); Gather historical data from sources such as archives, court records, diaries, news files, and photographs, as well as from books, pamphlets, and periodicals (about 2 h); Organize information for publication and for other means of dissemination, such as via storage media or the Internet (about 2 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 81%
- 12%
- 7%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 26%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.095% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 170th largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 3 of its 21 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.5% to 0.47% (released February and March 2025); 0.58% to 0.47% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.09% to 0.095% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.5% | 33 of 708 | 19 of 21 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.47% | 35 of 703 | 18 of 21 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.58% | 35 of 655 | 12 of 21 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.47% | 39 of 672 | 15 of 21 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.47% | 44 of 677 | 14 of 21 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.09% | 175 of 434 | 3 of 21 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.095% | 170 of 447 | 3 of 21 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 4% of this job's working time as physical work. For 0% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere. 0.00 of 3.
- Not physical 96%
- No robot shown 4%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 21 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gather historical data from sources such as archives, court records, diaries, news files, and photographs, as well as from books, pamphlets, and periodicals.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 9% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 55%Half by now | |
| Organize information for publication and for other means of dissemination, such as via storage media or the Internet.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 9% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 55%Half by now | |
| Present historical accounts in terms of individuals or social, ethnic, political, economic, or geographic groupings.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 9% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | Stays with people | |
| Conduct historical research as a basis for the identification, conservation, and reconstruction of historic places and materials.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 9% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.3 work weeks | 18%Half by Jul 2027 | |
| Research the history of a particular country or region, or of a specific time period.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 9% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | 5%Half by Apr 2028 | |
| Research and prepare manuscripts in support of public programming and the development of exhibits at historic sites, museums, libraries, and archives.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 9% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks | 6%Half by Feb 2028 | |
| Conduct historical research, and publish or present findings and theories.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 9% | 1.7 work weeks1.7 work days to 1.9 work months | 1%Half by Dec 2028 | |
| Trace historical development in a particular field, such as social, cultural, political, or diplomatic history.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 8% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | 5%Half by Apr 2028 | |
| Conserve and preserve manuscripts, records, and other artifacts.Done more than yearly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 4.2 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | Stays with people | |
| Organize data, and analyze and interpret its authenticity and relative significance.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 7% | 5 h2.5 h to 1.7 work days | 92%Half by now | |
| Determine which topics to research, or pursue research topics specified by clients or employers.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 3% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | 71%Half by now | |
| Collect detailed information on individuals for use in biographies.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | 15%Half by Oct 2027 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Historians is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 26% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 72% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (52% to 79% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Historians come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Organize data, and analyze and interpret its authenticity and relative significance (92% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Gather historical data from sources such as archives, court records, diaries, news files, and photographs, as well as from books, pamphlets, and periodicals (55% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Organize information for publication and for other means of dissemination, such as via storage media or the Internet (55% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028).
- Which tasks of Historians stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Present historical accounts in terms of individuals or social, ethnic, political, economic, or geographic groupings; Conserve and preserve manuscripts, records, and other artifacts; and Teach and conduct research in colleges, universities, museums, and other research agencies and schools. Together such tasks are about 19% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Historians?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.095% went to this job's tasks, the 170th largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 3 of its 21 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 3%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Historians?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 4% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 0% of the working time. Its index is 0.00 of 3. A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 21 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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