Historians
Research, analyze, record, and interpret the past as recorded in sources, such as government and institutional records, newspapers and other periodicals, photographs, interviews, films, electronic media, and unpublished manuscripts, such as personal diaries and letters.
3,450 people do this job in the US. $76,750 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 81%
- 12%
- 7%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 3%. Today's estimate: 5%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 21 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gather historical data from sources such as archives, court records, diaries, news files, and photographs, as well as from books, pamphlets, and periodicals.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 9% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 8%Half by Sep 2027 | |
| Organize information for publication and for other means of dissemination, such as via storage media or the Internet.Done several times a day by most who do it. | 9% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 8%Half by Sep 2027 | |
| Present historical accounts in terms of individuals or social, ethnic, political, economic, or geographic groupings.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 9% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | Stays with people | |
| Conduct historical research as a basis for the identification, conservation, and reconstruction of historic places and materials.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 9% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.3 work weeks | 1%Half by Jul 2028 | |
| Research the history of a particular country or region, or of a specific time period.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 9% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | 0%Half by Apr 2029 | |
| Research and prepare manuscripts in support of public programming and the development of exhibits at historic sites, museums, libraries, and archives.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 9% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 2.5 work weeks | 0%Half by Jan 2029 | |
| Conduct historical research, and publish or present findings and theories.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 9% | 1.7 work weeks1.7 work days to 1.9 work months | 0%Half by Dec 2029 | |
| Trace historical development in a particular field, such as social, cultural, political, or diplomatic history.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 8% | 4.2 work days6.7 h to 3.3 work weeks | 0%Half by Apr 2029 | |
| Conserve and preserve manuscripts, records, and other artifacts.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 7% | 4.2 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | Stays with people | |
| Organize data, and analyze and interpret its authenticity and relative significance.Done more than weekly by most who do it. | 7% | 5 h2.5 h to 1.7 work days | 20%Half by Feb 2027 | |
| Determine which topics to research, or pursue research topics specified by clients or employers.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 3% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.7 work days | 21%Half by May 2027 | |
| Collect detailed information on individuals for use in biographies.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.1 work days3.3 h to 1.7 work weeks | 1%Half by Sep 2028 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).