First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 46% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 49% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 51% of the time, stays with people.
Directly supervise and coordinate activities of sales workers other than retail sales workers. May perform duties such as budgeting, accounting, and personnel work, in addition to supervisory duties.
214,390 people do this job in the US. $87,520 a year.
Reviewed on September 30, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on2 h
- A person checks AI's work16 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet1 h
- Stays with people21 h
First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 2 hours, 16 hours become checking its work, 1 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 21 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Set pricing policies (about 5 h, a person checks); Analyze territories and set quotas (about 3 h, a person checks); Set schedules and assign duties (about 2 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 37%
- 12%
- 25%
- 19%
- 7%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 46% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 46%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 373rd largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 2 of its 18 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.043% to 0.014% (released February and March 2025); 0.029% to 0.045% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.011% to 0.011% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.043% | 298 of 708 | 8 of 18 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.014% | 462 of 703 | 3 of 18 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.029% | 318 of 655 | 4 of 18 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.029% | 324 of 672 | 6 of 18 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.045% | 263 of 677 | 7 of 18 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 357 of 434 | 2 of 18 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.011% | 373 of 447 | 2 of 18 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 2% of this job's working time as physical work. For 2% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 1% in a purpose-built cell, 1% in a structured facility. 0.03 of 3, the 614th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 98%
- In a purpose-built cell 1%
- In a structured facility 1%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
51% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Supervise sales and support staff, the in-person work, 13%
- Help staff with hard cases, the conversation, 6%
- Hire, train and evaluate staff, the conversation, 6%
- Visit retailers and reps, the in-person work, 5%
- Coordinate promotions, the hands-on work, 4%
- Attend company meetings, the conversation, 3%
What becomes checking the machine
43% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it. Another 6% is desk work that is small if wrong, which can be handed over with lighter checks.
- Set pricing policies, costly if wrong, 12%
- Analyze territories and set quotas, costly if wrong, 9%
- Keep purchase and sales records, costly if wrong, 6%
- Prepare sales and inventory reports, costly if wrong, 5%
- Coordinate promotions, costly if wrong, 4%
- Monitor sales performance, costly if wrong, 3%
What to learn
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
- The conversations. About 43% of the time is conversation and in-person work, which this site leaves with people: listening, explaining, persuading, calming.
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts. About 37% of the time is documents and data, the part models reach first: writing a clear brief, giving the right material, and checking what comes back.
- Running AI inside the business systems. About 12% of the time is work inside business systems, which a model can do only once it is connected: knowing the systems well enough to set that up and watch it.
- Handling protected records. Much of the work touches protected personal records: knowing what may be shared with a model, and how, is part of the job.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 18 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct and supervise employees engaged in sales, inventory-taking, reconciling cash receipts, or performing specific services.Direction in person and by call.Done daily by most who do it. | 13% | 1.3 h25 min to 3.3 h | In person 60%, conversation 40% | Stays with people |
| Formulate pricing policies on merchandise according to profitability requirements.Working the margins at the desk.Done daily by most who do it. | 12% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Documents 100% | 96%Half by now |
| Coordinate sales promotion activities, such as preparing merchandise displays and advertising copy.Copy written, displays set up, and the calls.Done daily by most who do it. | 9% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Documents 50%, hands-on 30%, conversation 20% | 48%Desk part half by now |
| Analyze details of sales territories to assess their growth potential and to set quotas.Analysis at the desk.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 9% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | Documents 100% | 80%Half by now |
| Hire, train, and evaluate personnel.Interviews, training and reviews, with the paperwork.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 7% | 4.2 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | Conversation 40%, in person 40%, documents 20% | 17%Desk part half by now |
| Plan and prepare work schedules, and assign employees to specific duties.Building the schedule in a system, with some planning and telling people.Done daily by most who do it. | 7% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Systems 50%, documents 30%, conversation 20% | 80%Desk part half by now |
| Provide staff with assistance in performing difficult or complicated duties.Working alongside the staff, by call and in person.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Conversation 50%, in person 50% | Stays with people |
| Monitor sales staff performance to ensure that goals are met.Reading the numbers and talking with the staff.Done daily by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 6% | 50 min25 min to 2.5 h | Documents 50%, conversation 50% | 50%Desk part half by now |
| Keep records pertaining to purchases, sales, and requisitions.Entries in the system.Done daily by most who do it. | 6% | 1.3 h17 min to 3.3 h | Systems 100% | 97%Half by now |
| Visit retailers and sales representatives to promote products and gather information.Visits in person.Done daily by most who do it. | 5% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | In person 80%, hands-on 20% | Stays with people |
| Prepare sales and inventory reports for management and budget departments.Reports built from the system.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 5% | 3.3 h50 min to 6.7 h | Documents 60%, systems 40% | 91%Half by now |
| Attend company meetings to exchange product information and coordinate work activities with other departments.Meetings with the other departments.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 1.3 h50 min to 2.5 h | Conversation 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers54% now, 58% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers49% now, 51% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services27% now, 28% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers47% now, 57% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants32% now, 33% by 2028
- First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers48% now, 54% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
- Credit Intermediation and Related Activities (5221 and 5223 only)23,550 people
- Electronics and Appliance Retailers19,350 people
- Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (4232, 4233, 4235, 4236, 4237, and 4239 only)15,870 people
- Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods (4244 and 4248 only)12,240 people
- Telecommunications10,600 people
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 46% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 49% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Set pricing policies (96% of the task's time now); Analyze territories and set quotas (80% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Set schedules and assign duties (80% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Supervise sales and support staff; Help staff with hard cases; and Visit retailers and reps. Together such tasks are about 34% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are reviewing work you did not do yourself; the conversations; and briefing a model and checking its drafts. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 51% of the working time stays with people, 43% becomes checking a model's work and 6% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.011% went to this job's tasks, the 373rd largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 2 of its 18 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 23%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 2% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 2% of the working time, 1% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.03 of 3. One example: Tally (Simbe Robotics) for "check pricing and displays". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 18 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on September 30, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
This job in your state or metro area
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.
Your own version of this job
The page above is the occupation. Your job is your title and what you actually do: give both, and they are read against these tasks in your browser, nothing sent anywhere. The headline is free: how much of your working time is within reach now and by the end of 2028, and how many of the tasks your description names.
The full personal report is $19, to print or save as a PDF: every task with when it comes within reach, which ones your description names, the parts of your description the task list does not cover, what stays with you, what becomes checking the machine and what to learn.