Orderlies
In short: today's best AI models could do about 4% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The conversations, in-person and hands-on work, about 96% of the time, stays with people.
Transport patients to areas such as operating rooms or x-ray rooms using wheelchairs, stretchers, or moveable beds. May maintain stocks of supplies or clean and transport equipment. Psychiatric orderlies are included in Psychiatric Aides.
52,440 people do this job in the US. $38,290 a year.
Reviewed on October 18, 2026: what each task is made of, and what handing it over would ask.
A typical 40-hour week
- AI could take on0 h
- A person checks AI's work2 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people38 h
Orderlies, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 0 hours, 2 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 38 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Clean equipment and log repairs (about 1 h, a person checks); Transport specimens and pharmacy items (under an hour, a person checks).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 0%
- 4%
- 0%
- 1%
- 95%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
What handing it over would take, now
The 4% within reach splits by what a model would need. The dates, pace and reliability follow the controls above. Estimates.
of the working time. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
of the working time. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
is conversation short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the total.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 4%. Today's estimate: 4%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, no reportable share went to this job's tasks in May 2026; 0 of its 22 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.0042% to none (released February and March 2025).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.0042% | 630 of 708 | 1 of 22 |
| Released March 2025 | none | n/a | 0 of 22 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | none | n/a | 0 of 22 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 22 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 22 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 22 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | none | n/a | 0 of 22 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 97% of this job's working time as physical work. For 79% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 66% in a purpose-built cell, 13% in a structured facility. 0.92 of 3, the 166th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 3%
- No robot shown 18%
- In a purpose-built cell 66%
- In a structured facility 13%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
What changes for the people in this job
From the task-by-task review, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five. It says which parts of the work stay with people and which change, not whether anyone keeps a job: that depends on decisions no data set can see.
What stays with people
96% of the working time: the conversation, in-person and hands-on parts of the tasks.
- Sterilize equipment, the hands-on work, 16%
- Transport patients, the hands-on work, 13%
- Clean equipment and log repairs, the hands-on work, 13%
- Collect linen and trash, the hands-on work, 7%
- Lift and move patients, the hands-on work, 7%
- Change linens, the hands-on work, 5%
What becomes checking the machine
4% of the working time: desk work a model could do by then, in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs. A person checks it.
- Clean equipment and log repairs, costly if wrong, 3%
- Transport specimens and pharmacy items, severe if wrong, 0.7%
What to learn
- The hands-on craft. About 95% of the time is hands-on work, which no model here does; robots are rated separately on this page.
- Judgment where errors are severe. Some tasks are severe if wrong. Knowing when not to trust an output matters more there than speed.
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself. The tasks under What becomes checking the machine, where a mistake costs something, stay a person's to check: spotting what a draft gets wrong is a skill of its own.
Your own version of this job: read it against your job description. The headline is free; the full personal report, every task with its timeline and what to learn, is $19 (a sample).
The tasks
Sorted by . 22 tasks from .
| Task | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean equipment, such as wheelchairs, hospital beds, or portable medical equipment, documenting needed repairs or maintenance.Cleaning wheelchairs, beds and equipment and noting what needs repair.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Hospital cart/utensil washer-disinfector (generic class, e.g. AMSCO/Vision cart washers) (Healthmark Industries (trade article) describing cart washers) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 16% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 80%, systems 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Disinfect or sterilize equipment or supplies, using germicides or sterilizing equipment.Disinfecting and sterilizing equipment and supplies.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Aqua Phase AQ-4000 wheelchair/equipment washer-sanitizer (Midstate Stainless (Aqua Phase), Grantsburg, WI) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 16% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Transport patients to treatment units, testing units, operating rooms, or other areas, using wheelchairs, stretchers, or moveable beds.Wheeling patients to treatment, testing and operating rooms.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, WHILL driverless mobility (autonomous wheelchair) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 13% | 17 min8 min to 33 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Collect soiled linen or trash.Collecting soiled linen and trash.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, ZenRobotics Heavy Picker 4.0 / Fast Picker (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Lift or assist others to lift patients to move them on or off beds, examination tables, surgical tables, or stretchers.Lifting patients on and off beds, tables and stretchers.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, ALTA Platform (Able Innovations) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 7% | 10 min4 min to 21 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Change soiled linens, such as bed linens, drapes, or cubicle curtains.Changing bed linens, drapes and curtains.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 15 min8 min to 25 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Collect and transport infectious or hazardous waste in closed containers for sterilization or disposal, in accordance with applicable law, standards, or policies.Collecting and carrying infectious and hazardous waste in closed containers.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Tesla Optimus; Loki Robotics wheeled trash robot (Tesla; Loki Robotics) (demonstrated). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 25 min13 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Transport portable medical equipment or medical supplies between rooms or departments.Moving portable equipment and supplies between rooms.Done daily by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Aethon TUG (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 17 min8 min to 33 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Transport specimens, laboratory items, or pharmacy items, ensuring proper documentation and delivery to authorized personnel.Carrying specimens and pharmacy items to the right person, with the handoff signed.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: in a structured facility, Moxi (Diligent Robotics) (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 17 min8 min to 29 min | Hands-on 80%, systems 20% | 20%Desk part half by now |
| Provide physical support to patients to assist them to perform daily living activities, such as getting out of bed, bathing, dressing, using the toilet, standing, walking, or exercising.Supporting patients out of bed, in the bathroom and on their feet.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 21 min8 min to 50 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Clean and sanitize patient rooms, bathrooms, examination rooms, or other patient areas.Cleaning and sanitizing rooms, bathrooms and patient areas.Done several times a day by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 17 min8 min to 38 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
| Carry messages or documents between departments.Carrying messages and documents from one department to another.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: in a structured facility, Aethon TUG (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 8 min4 min to 17 min | Hands-on 100% | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach. Made of: how the task's time splits among five kinds of doing. Only the documents and systems parts can count as within reach, so a task that is 30% documents can be at most 30% within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Orderlies is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 4% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 4% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Orderlies come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Clean equipment and log repairs (20% of the task's time now); and Transport specimens and pharmacy items (20% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Orderlies stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Sterilize equipment; Transport patients; and Collect linen and trash. Together such tasks are about 81% of the working time, and the people and body parts of the other tasks stay with people too.
- What should Orderlies learn as AI takes on more of the work?
- By the job's own task-by-task review, the first things to learn are the hands-on craft; judgment where errors are severe; and reviewing work you did not do yourself. By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 96% of the working time stays with people, 4% becomes checking a model's work and 0% could be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Orderlies?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Orderlies?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 97% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 79% of the working time, 13% in a structured facility. Its index is 0.92 of 3. One example: Aethon TUG for "move equipment and supplies". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 22 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, reviewed one task at a time on October 18, 2026 for what each is made of (documents, business systems, conversation, in person, hands-on), and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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