Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators
Facilitate negotiation and conflict resolution through dialogue. Resolve conflicts outside of the court system by mutual consent of parties involved.
9,210 people do this job in the US. $75,530 a year.
of the working time. Estimate.
- 95%
- 5%
- 0%
Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 21%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
The tasks
Sorted by . 20 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialize in the negotiation and resolution of environmental conflicts involving issues such as natural resource allocation or regional development planning.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 13% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 2%Half by Feb 2028 | |
| Prepare written opinions or decisions regarding cases.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 13% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | 9%Half by Aug 2027 | |
| Conduct studies of appeals procedures to ensure adherence to legal requirements or to facilitate disposition of cases.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 12% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 2%Half by Feb 2028 | |
| Conduct hearings to obtain information or evidence relative to disposition of claims.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 10% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 8%Half by Sep 2027 | |
| Research laws, regulations, policies, or precedent decisions to prepare for hearings.Done more than yearly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 9% | 3.3 h50 min to 1 work day | 28%Half by Feb 2027 | |
| Determine extent of liability according to evidence, laws, or administrative or judicial precedents.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 7% | 4.2 h1.7 h to 1 work day | 30%Half by Dec 2026 | |
| Use mediation techniques to facilitate communication between disputants, to further parties' understanding of different perspectives, and to guide parties toward mutual agreement.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 7% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | 17%Half by Apr 2027 | |
| Apply relevant laws, regulations, policies, or precedents to reach conclusions.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 6% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | 25%Half by Mar 2027 | |
| Confer with disputants to clarify issues, identify underlying concerns, and develop an understanding of their respective needs and interests.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Organize or deliver public presentations about mediation to organizations, such as community agencies or schools.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | 49%Half by now | |
| Evaluate information from documents, such as claim applications, birth or death certificates, or physician or employer records.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 1.7 h25 min to 6.7 h | 43%Half by Nov 2026 | |
| Participate in court proceedings.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | 46%Half by Oct 2026 |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Administrative Law Judges, Adjudicators, and Hearing Officers44% now, 88% by 2028
- Lawyers10% now, 56% by 2028
- Labor Relations Specialists8% now, 60% by 2028
- Judicial Law Clerks26% now, 92% by 2028
- Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates40% now, 94% by 2028
- Equal Opportunity Representatives and Officers15% now, 83% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).