Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators
In short: today's best AI models could do about 63% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about 95% by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 5% of the time, stays with people.
Facilitate negotiation and conflict resolution through dialogue. Resolve conflicts outside of the court system by mutual consent of parties involved.
9,210 people do this job in the US. $75,530 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on25 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet13 h
- Stays with people2 h
Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 25 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 13 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 2 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Prepare written opinions or decisions regarding cases (about 3 h); Research laws, regulations, policies, or precedent decisions to prepare for hearings (about 3 h); Determine extent of liability according to evidence, laws, or administrative or judicial precedents (about 3 h).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 95%
- 5%
- 0%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 63%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
Of the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled and tied to a work task, 0.053% went to this job's tasks in May 2026, the 221st largest of the 447 jobs that showed up at all; 1 of its 20 tasks showed up. Within each of Anthropic's methods, never across a change: 0.29% to 0.11% (released February and March 2025); 0.11% to 0.087% (August 2025 to February 2026); 0.057% to 0.053% (April to May 2026).
Each release
| Conversations | Share | Rank | Tasks seen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Released February 2025 | 0.29% | 71 of 708 | 7 of 20 |
| Released March 2025 | 0.11% | 148 of 703 | 8 of 20 |
| The week of Aug 4, 2025 (released September 2025) | 0.11% | 145 of 655 | 5 of 20 |
| The week of Nov 13, 2025 (released January 2026) | 0.1% | 146 of 672 | 5 of 20 |
| The week of Feb 5, 2026 (released March 2026) | 0.087% | 179 of 677 | 5 of 20 |
| April 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.057% | 213 of 434 | 1 of 20 |
| May 2026 (released June 2026) | 0.053% | 221 of 447 | 1 of 20 |
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates almost none of this job's working time as physical work, so robots do not reach it.
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 20 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialize in the negotiation and resolution of environmental conflicts involving issues such as natural resource allocation or regional development planning.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 13% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 31%Half by Mar 2027 | |
| Prepare written opinions or decisions regarding cases.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 13% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.1 work days | 61%Half by now | |
| Conduct studies of appeals procedures to ensure adherence to legal requirements or to facilitate disposition of cases.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 12% | 1.7 work days3.3 h to 4.2 work days | 31%Half by Mar 2027 | |
| Conduct hearings to obtain information or evidence relative to disposition of claims.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 10% | 6.7 h1.7 h to 2.5 work days | 55%Half by now | |
| Research laws, regulations, policies, or precedent decisions to prepare for hearings.Done more than yearly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 9% | 3.3 h50 min to 1 work day | 86%Half by now | |
| Determine extent of liability according to evidence, laws, or administrative or judicial precedents.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 7% | 4.2 h1.7 h to 1 work day | 97%Half by now | |
| Use mediation techniques to facilitate communication between disputants, to further parties' understanding of different perspectives, and to guide parties toward mutual agreement.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 7% | 5 h1.7 h to 1.7 work days | 80%Half by now | |
| Apply relevant laws, regulations, policies, or precedents to reach conclusions.Done more than monthly by most who do it. AI observed on this task. | 6% | 3.3 h50 min to 1.3 work days | 80%Half by now | |
| Confer with disputants to clarify issues, identify underlying concerns, and develop an understanding of their respective needs and interests.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Organize or deliver public presentations about mediation to organizations, such as community agencies or schools.Done more than yearly by most who do it. | 3% | 3.3 h1.7 h to 6.7 h | 100%Half by now | |
| Evaluate information from documents, such as claim applications, birth or death certificates, or physician or employer records.Done more than monthly by most who do it. | 3% | 1.7 h25 min to 6.7 h | 88%Half by now | |
| Participate in court proceedings.Done yearly or less by most who do it. | 3% | 2.5 h50 min to 6.7 h | 96%Half by now |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
- Administrative Law Judges, Adjudicators, and Hearing Officers82% now, 88% by 2028
- Lawyers32% now, 58% by 2028
- Labor Relations Specialists33% now, 54% by 2028
- Judicial Law Clerks71% now, 93% by 2028
- Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates85% now, 94% by 2028
- Equal Opportunity Representatives and Officers51% now, 87% by 2028
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 63% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 95% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (91% to 95% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Prepare written opinions or decisions regarding cases (61% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); Research laws, regulations, policies, or precedent decisions to prepare for hearings (86% of the task's time now, 100% by the end of 2028); and Determine extent of liability according to evidence, laws, or administrative or judicial precedents (97% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Confer with disputants to clarify issues, identify underlying concerns, and develop an understanding of their respective needs and interests; and Interview claimants, agents, or witnesses to obtain information about disputed issues. Together such tasks are about 5% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026 and tied to a work task, 0.053% went to this job's tasks, the 221st largest share of the 447 jobs that showed up; 1 of its 20 tasks appeared. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 24%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds almost none of the working time is physical work, so robots do not reach it.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 20 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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