Industry group, 8121
Personal Care Services
755,790 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $45,190 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 267 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 20%
- 8%
- 72%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 13% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 4%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 17%. Today's estimate: 18%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 17 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 69,770 | 59% | 85 million | $34K |
| Manicurists and Pedicurists | 150,470 | 12% | 37 million | $36K |
| Skincare Specialists | 53,350 | 21% | 23 million | $44K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers | 28,560 | 37% | 22 million | $46K |
| Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists | 265,230 | 3% | 16 million | $36K |
| Massage Therapists | 49,750 | 12% | 12 million | $56K |
| Counter and Rental Clerks | 8,590 | 53% | 9.5 million | $33K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 6,600 | 64% | 8.8 million | $33K |
| General and Operations Managers | 18,570 | 23% | 8.8 million | $72K |
| Barbers | 14,670 | 23% | 7.1 million | $38K |
| Office Clerks, General | 4,940 | 54% | 5.6 million | $37K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 3,360 | 43% | 3 million | $31K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 69 smaller jobs (33,690 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Maintain supply inventories and records of client services.Manicurists and Pedicurists27 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative support tasks, such as proofreading, transcribing handwritten information, or operating calculators or computers to work with pay records, invoices, balance sheets, or other documents.Receptionists and Information Clerks22 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Analyze data to determine answers to questions from customers or members of the public.Receptionists and Information Clerks12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Stay abreast of latest industry trends, products, research, and treatments.Skincare Specialists12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Schedule client appointments and accept payments.Manicurists and Pedicurists9.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Schedule space or equipment for special programs and prepare lists of participants.Receptionists and Information Clerks9.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Process and prepare memos, correspondence, travel vouchers, or other documents.Receptionists and Information Clerks8.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- File and maintain records.Receptionists and Information Clerks8 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Assign work schedules, following work requirements, to ensure quality and timely delivery of service.First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers7.8 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Schedule client appointments.Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists6.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works