Industry group, 8121
Personal Care Services
755,790 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $45,190 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 271 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 18%
- 20%
- 62%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 14% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 705,480 people in jobs so far, 93% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 121 million hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 139 million hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 58 million hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 9%
- 10%
- 4%
- 17%
- 61%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 705,480 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft545,910 (77%)
- Signing off under your license471,493 (67%)
- The conversations106,970 (15%)
- Running AI inside the business systems86,490 (12%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization78,500 (11%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself69,127 (10%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts36,297 (5%)
- Judgment where errors are severe11,253 (2%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 15%. Today's estimate: 18%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 67% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 18% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 9% in a purpose-built cell, 8% in a structured facility. 0.26 of 3.
- Not physical 33%
- No robot shown 50%
- In a purpose-built cell 9%
- In a structured facility 8%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 17 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 69,770 | 60% | 86 million | $34K |
| Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists | 265,230 | 8% | 44 million | $36K |
| Manicurists and Pedicurists | 150,470 | 7% | 21 million | $36K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers | 28,560 | 31% | 18 million | $46K |
| General and Operations Managers | 18,570 | 45% | 17 million | $72K |
| Skincare Specialists | 53,350 | 10% | 11 million | $44K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 6,600 | 64% | 8.8 million | $33K |
| Barbers | 14,670 | 28% | 8.5 million | $38K |
| Massage Therapists | 49,750 | 6% | 6.5 million | $56K |
| Office Clerks, General | 4,940 | 56% | 5.8 million | $37K |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 3,360 | 59% | 4.1 million | $31K |
| Counter and Rental Clerks | 8,590 | 23% | 4.1 million | $33K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 69 smaller jobs (33,690 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 97% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Develop new styles and techniques.Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists24 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Perform administrative support tasks, such as proofreading, transcribing handwritten information, or operating calculators or computers to work with pay records, invoices, balance sheets, or other documents.Receptionists and Information Clerks22 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Maintain supply inventories and records of client services.Manicurists and Pedicurists16 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Analyze data to determine answers to questions from customers or members of the public.Receptionists and Information Clerks12 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Schedule space or equipment for special programs and prepare lists of participants.Receptionists and Information Clerks9.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Process and prepare memos, correspondence, travel vouchers, or other documents.Receptionists and Information Clerks8.3 million hours100% of the task within reach
- File and maintain records.Receptionists and Information Clerks8 million hours60% of the task within reach
- Order, display, and maintain supplies.Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists7.5 million hours40% of the task within reach
- Update and maintain customer information records, such as beauty services provided.Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists6.9 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Keep a current record of staff members' whereabouts and availability.Receptionists and Information Clerks6.7 million hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Personal Care Services is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 18% of the paid hours in Personal Care Services are within reach of AI models now and 18% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Personal Care Services carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): Receptionists and Information Clerks (69,770 people, 60% of their time, about 86 million hours a year); Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists (265,230 people, 8% of their time, about 44 million hours a year); and Manicurists and Pedicurists (150,470 people, 7% of their time, about 21 million hours a year).
- Which tasks in Personal Care Services carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Develop new styles and techniques (Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists, about 24 million hours a year); Perform administrative support tasks, such as proofreading, transcribing handwritten information, or operating calculators or computers to work with pay records, invoices, balance sheets, or other documents (Receptionists and Information Clerks, about 22 million hours a year); and Maintain supply inventories and records of client services (Manicurists and Pedicurists, about 16 million hours a year).
- What would people working in Personal Care Services learn first?
- Among the 705,480 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (545,910 people); signing off under your license (471,493 people); and the conversations (106,970 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 81% of their working time stays with people, 7% becomes checking a model's work and 12% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Personal Care Services (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 97% of its people, and 93% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.