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Manicurists and Pedicurists

Clean and shape customers' fingernails and toenails. May polish or decorate nails.

152,770 people do this job in the US. $35,760 a year.

now
12%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 12%
  • 6%
  • 82%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 12% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 3%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 12%. Today's estimate: 12%.

0%5%10%15%20%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 1% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 3% within reacho3, April 2025: 9% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 11% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 12% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 12% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 12% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 12% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 12% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 12% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 18 tasks from .

TaskKind
Extend nails using powder, solvent, and paper forms attached to tips of customers' fingers to support and shape artificial nails.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 18%50 min25 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Maintain supply inventories and records of client services.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 9%21 min13 min to 38 min100%Half by now
Assess the condition of clients' hands, remove dead skin, and massage hands.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 9%17 min8 min to 25 minStays with people
Clean and sanitize tools and work environment.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 8%13 min4 min to 21 minStays with people
Treat nails to repair or improve strength and resilience by wrapping.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 7%21 min13 min to 33 minStays with people
Apply undercoat and clear or colored polish onto nails with brush.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 6%10 min4 min to 21 minStays with people
Use rotary abrasive wheels to shape and smooth nails or artificial extensions.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 5%13 min7 min to 25 minStays with people
Decorate clients' nails by piercing or attaching ornaments or designs.Done daily by most who do it. 5%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Prepare nail cuticles with water and oil, using cuticle knives to push back cuticles and scissors or nippers to trim cuticles.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 5%13 min4 min to 21 minStays with people
Shape and smooth ends of nails, using scissors, files, or emery boards.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 5%8 min4 min to 17 minStays with people
Remove previously applied nail polish, using liquid remover and swabs.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 4%7 min3 min to 10 minStays with people
Prepare customers' nails in soapy water, using swabs, files, and orange sticks.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 4%8 min4 min to 17 minStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).