Industry group, 3169

Other Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing

10,190 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $50,680 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.

now

16%

of the paid hours. Estimate.

$103M

a year: 2.9 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.

Kinds of work

of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 13% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.

Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.

Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030

Chosen to Ceiling: the share

DateNow

NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 14%. Today's estimate: 16%.

Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

Where the hours are

Jobs by hours within reach now. The 25 largest jobs hold 95% of the people.

	People			Pay here
Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks	340	53%	374,109	$36K
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers	490	32%	325,126	$60K
Customer Service Representatives	240	64%	321,485	$42K
Team Assemblers	1,430	10%	309,338	$38K
Office Clerks, General	170	54%	192,005	$49K
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products	220	36%	163,821	$56K
General and Operations Managers	320	23%	151,758	$103K
Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks	80	63%	105,498	$56K
Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers	2,470	2%	102,752	$37K
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive	110	43%	97,469	$46K
Retail Salespersons	220	19%	88,774	$36K
Stockers and Order Fillers	190	19%	75,088	$29K

People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 13 smaller jobs (430 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 89% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.

The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028

Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.

Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications.Team Assemblers
126,457 hours50% of the task within reach
Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
114,966 hours100% of the task within reach
Estimate the costs of requested products or services such as custom footwear or footwear repair, and receive payment from customers.Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers
104,191 hours100% of the task within reach
Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
102,569 hours67% of the task within reach
Complete production reports to communicate team production level to management.Team Assemblers
102,052 hours100% of the task within reach
Determine work assignments and procedures.Team Assemblers
91,344 hours50% of the task within reach
Prepare documents, such as work orders, bills of lading, or shipping orders, to route materials.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks
90,635 hours100% of the task within reach
Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
77,928 hours100% of the task within reach
Determine shipping methods, routes, or rates for materials to be shipped.Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks
63,415 hours100% of the task within reach
Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers
57,841 hours100% of the task within reach

Scan a typical company in this industry

The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.

People

Scan a typical company Or paste your own roles

Next to this industry

Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works