Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers
In short: today's best AI models could do about 2% of this job's working time (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) if the work were set up for them, and about the same by the end of 2028 if progress keeps its long-run pace. The people and hands-on work, about 98% of the time, stays with people.
Construct, decorate, or repair leather and leather-like products, such as luggage, shoes, and saddles. May use hand tools.
7,450 people do this job in the US. $37,800 a year.
A typical 40-hour week
Not yet reviewed task by task- AI could take on1 h
- A person checks AI's work0 h
- Desk work AI can't do yet0 h
- Stays with people39 h
Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers, now: of a 40-hour week, AI could take on 1 hours, 0 hours become checking its work, 0 hours are desk work it can't do yet, and 39 hours stay with people.
The largest pieces: Estimate the costs of requested products or services such as custom footwear or footwear repair, and receive payment from customers (under an hour).
Estimates for a typical week of this job, if progress keeps its long-run pace, counting work the best models finish four times in five. Every task is below.
of the working time. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
- 2%
- 0%
- 98%
of the work: Anthropic's measure of what people already bring to Claude at work (2025). It counts help with part of a task, so it can be higher than the share within reach.
On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.
Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 2.4 work days long four times in five.
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 2%. Today's estimate: 2%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Measured use over time
None of this job's 26 tasks showed up in the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled in any of its 7 releases, from February 2025 to May 2026.
Measured, not estimated: Anthropic's samples of Claude.ai conversations, each tied by a model to an O*NET task, from the Anthropic Economic Index. It says where Claude's use goes, not how much of this job's working time it covers, so it is not on the same scale as the reach above. The releases differ in their sample, their classifier and the smallest share they report (the June 2026 file rounds each task to a hundredth of a percent, so a smaller task reads as none), which is why a change of method starts a new line. At least 96% of each older release's task-tied use matched this site's tasks, and all of the newest. Claude.ai only, so use through other tools and other companies' models is not in it. Every job ranked.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 93% of this job's working time as physical work. For 30% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 30% in a purpose-built cell. 0.30 of 3, the 388th highest of the 923 jobs.
- Not physical 7%
- No robot shown 63%
- In a purpose-built cell 30%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. The robot behind each rated task is under the task below.
The tasks
Sorted by . 26 tasks from .
| Task | Kind | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repair or replace soles, heels, and other parts of footwear, using sewing, buffing and other shoe repair machines, materials, and equipment.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 11% | 1.3 h38 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Construct, decorate, or repair leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines, needles and thread, leather lacing, glue, clamps, hand tools, or rivets.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 10% | 1.3 h25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Repair and recondition leather products such as trunks, luggage, shoes, saddles, belts, purses, and baseball gloves.Done more than weekly by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 9% | 1.7 h38 min to 3.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Attach insoles to shoe lasts, affix shoe uppers, and apply heels and outsoles.Done hourly or more by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.1 h25 min to 2.5 h | Stays with people | |
| Dye, soak, polish, paint, stamp, stitch, stain, buff, or engrave leather or other materials to obtain desired effects, decorations, or shapes.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 38 min13 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Make, modify, and repair orthopedic or therapeutic footwear according to doctors' prescriptions, or modify existing footwear for people with foot problems and special needs.Done more than monthly by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 6% | 1.7 h38 min to 5 h | Stays with people | |
| Dress and otherwise finish boots or shoes, as by trimming the edges of new soles and heels to the shoe shape.Done several times a day by most who do it.Robots: in a purpose-built cell, DESMA rotary direct-soling line with seven robots at Atlas (deployed). Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 38 min17 min to 1.3 h | Stays with people | |
| Cement, nail, or sew soles and heels to shoes.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 5% | 42 min17 min to 1.4 h | Stays with people | |
| Re-sew seams, and replace handles and linings of suitcases or handbags.Done daily by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 50 min25 min to 1.7 h | Stays with people | |
| Cut, insert, position, and secure paddings, cushioning, or linings, using stitches or glue.Done several times a day by most who do it.Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 4% | 38 min13 min to 1.4 h | Stays with people | |
| Cut out parts, following patterns or outlines, using knives, shears, scissors, or machine presses.Done several times a day by most who do it. Robots: in a purpose-built cell, Lectra Versalis (with LeatherSuite) (sold). Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people | |
| Inspect articles for defects, and remove damaged or worn parts, using hand tools.Done hourly or more by most who do it. Robots: no robot shown. Anthropic's rating. | 3% | 25 min8 min to 50 min | Stays with people |
Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.
Jobs that share skills with this one
From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
Where this job works
The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).
Where the most of these jobs are
The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).
Questions about this job
- How much of the work of Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 2% of the working time is within reach of AI models now and 2% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five. Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which tasks of Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers come within reach first?
- Weighted by the time each takes, the tasks with the most within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index) are: Estimate the costs of requested products or services such as custom footwear or footwear repair, and receive payment from customers (100% of the task's time now).
- Which tasks of Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers stay with people?
- Tasks that are people work or body work are not counted as within reach at any date. The largest: Repair or replace soles, heels, and other parts of footwear, using sewing, buffing and other shoe repair machines, materials, and equipment; Construct, decorate, or repair leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines, needles and thread, leather lacing, glue, clamps, hand tools, or rivets; and Repair and recondition leather products such as trunks, luggage, shoes, saddles, belts, purses, and baseball gloves. Together such tasks are about 98% of the working time.
- Do people already use AI for the work of Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers?
- In the Claude.ai conversations Anthropic sampled for May 2026, no reportable share went to this job's tasks. Anthropic's labor market measure puts the share of the job's tasks seen in real Claude use at work at 0%. These are measures of use, not of how much of the work AI could finish, and they cover Claude only.
- Can robots do the physical work of Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers?
- Anthropic's robot exposure rating (September 2026) finds 93% of the working time is physical work, and that a robot has been shown doing most of the task, somewhere, for 30% of the working time. Its index is 0.30 of 3. One example: DESMA rotary direct-soling line with seven robots at Atlas for "dress and otherwise finish boots or shoes, as by trimming the edges of new soles and heels to the shoe shape". A robot shown somewhere is not one in every workplace; this site's own estimates still count no physical work as within reach.
- How is this estimated?
- From the 26 tasks O*NET lists for the occupation, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval and a share of the working time, each classed as desk, people or body work, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. Data checked November 10, 2026.
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