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Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers

Construct, decorate, or repair leather and leather-like products, such as luggage, shoes, and saddles. May use hand tools.

7,450 people do this job in the US. $37,800 a year.

now
2%

of the working time. Estimate.

Kinds of work
  • 2%
  • 0%
  • 98%
0%

Measured, from Anthropic's usage data (2025). Counts help on part of a task.

Half the desk work within reach
Already

On the chosen pace and reliability. Estimate.

Share of the working time within reach, now to 2030

0%25%50%75%100%2027202820292030NowDesk work: 2% of the time
Chosen to Ceiling: the share
DateNow
NowEnd of 2030

What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .

At this date and pace, models finish tasks up to 4.4 h long four times in five.

How far this has come

With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this job's working time was within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 0%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 2%. Today's estimate: 2%.

0%5%10%2023202420252026GPT-4, March 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4 Turbo (Nov 2023), November 2023: 0% within reachGPT-4o, May 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024), June 2024: 0% within reacho1-preview, September 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.5 Sonnet (Oct 2024), October 2024: 0% within reacho1, December 2024: 0% within reachClaude 3.7 Sonnet, February 2025: 0% within reacho3, April 2025: 1% within reachGPT-5, August 2025: 1% within reachGemini 3 Pro, November 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.5, November 2025: 2% within reachGPT-5.2, December 2025: 2% within reachClaude Opus 4.6, February 2026: 2% within reachClaude Mythos Preview (early), April 2026: 2% within reachToday (estimate), September 2026: 2% within reach
Each step is a new best model measured by METR, four in five; the dashed end is today's estimate. Point at a dot for the model.

A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.

The tasks

Sorted by . 26 tasks from .

TaskKind
Repair or replace soles, heels, and other parts of footwear, using sewing, buffing and other shoe repair machines, materials, and equipment.Done hourly or more by most who do it.11%1.3 h38 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Construct, decorate, or repair leather products according to specifications, using sewing machines, needles and thread, leather lacing, glue, clamps, hand tools, or rivets.Done several times a day by most who do it. 10%1.3 h25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Repair and recondition leather products such as trunks, luggage, shoes, saddles, belts, purses, and baseball gloves.Done more than weekly by most who do it. 9%1.7 h38 min to 3.3 hStays with people
Attach insoles to shoe lasts, affix shoe uppers, and apply heels and outsoles.Done hourly or more by most who do it.6%1.1 h25 min to 2.5 hStays with people
Dye, soak, polish, paint, stamp, stitch, stain, buff, or engrave leather or other materials to obtain desired effects, decorations, or shapes.Done several times a day by most who do it. 6%38 min13 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Make, modify, and repair orthopedic or therapeutic footwear according to doctors' prescriptions, or modify existing footwear for people with foot problems and special needs.Done more than monthly by most who do it.6%1.7 h38 min to 5 hStays with people
Dress and otherwise finish boots or shoes, as by trimming the edges of new soles and heels to the shoe shape.Done several times a day by most who do it.5%38 min17 min to 1.3 hStays with people
Cement, nail, or sew soles and heels to shoes.Done daily by most who do it.5%42 min17 min to 1.4 hStays with people
Re-sew seams, and replace handles and linings of suitcases or handbags.Done daily by most who do it.4%50 min25 min to 1.7 hStays with people
Cut, insert, position, and secure paddings, cushioning, or linings, using stitches or glue.Done several times a day by most who do it.4%38 min13 min to 1.4 hStays with people
Cut out parts, following patterns or outlines, using knives, shears, scissors, or machine presses.Done several times a day by most who do it. 3%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people
Inspect articles for defects, and remove damaged or worn parts, using hand tools.Done hourly or more by most who do it. 3%25 min8 min to 50 minStays with people

Within reach, per task: the share of the task's time whose instances are short enough for a model to finish at the chosen date, pace and reliability. Half by: the date half of that time comes within reach.

Jobs that share skills with this one

From O*NET's related occupations. Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.

Where this job works

The industry groups that employ the most of it (BLS, May 2025).

Where the most of these jobs are

The metro areas with the most people in it (BLS, May 2025).