Industry group, 3161
Leather and Hide Tanning and Finishing
3,180 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $51,140 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
a year: 918,768 hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 21%
- 8%
- 72%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 15% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 30% within reach now and 36% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
Change assumptionsHide assumptionsLong-run pace, four in five
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
What handing the work over would take
For the 1,220 people in jobs so far, 38% of the industry's people; the others are in the totals above and join this split as the review reaches their jobs. Shares of their working time within reach now, at the pace and reliability chosen above. Estimates. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
about 572,483 hours a year. The material can be handed to a model and the result handed back.
about 258,328 hours a year. The model has to be connected to the system the work lives in.
about 150,226 hours a year. Short enough by length. This site leaves conversation with people, so it is not in the totals.
What their work is made of
- 26%
- 11%
- 6%
- 9%
- 48%
Each task's time split among five kinds of doing, judged one task at a time; only documents and systems can count as within reach.
What changes for the people
For the 1,220 people in jobs reviewed task by task so far, by the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five: the shares of their working time, from each job page's own map, weighted by how many people here do that job. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job. Estimates.
Conversation, in-person and hands-on work.
Desk work within reach in tasks where a mistake costs something or a licensed person signs.
Desk work within reach that is small if wrong, with lighter checks.
What most people here would learn first
How many of them have each skill among the first two things to learn on their job's page. Every state, and the US
- The hands-on craft700 (57%)
- Reviewing work you did not do yourself620 (51%)
- Briefing a model and checking its drafts410 (34%)
- Judgment where errors are severe230 (19%)
- Running AI inside the business systems130 (11%)
- The conversations70 (6%)
- Dealing with people outside the organization70 (6%)
- Signing off under your license40 (3%)
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 13%. Today's estimate: 19%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Robots and the physical work
Anthropic rates 69% of the working time of the people in this industry as physical work. For 42% of the working time, a robot has been shown doing most of the task somewhere: 32% in a purpose-built cell, 9% in a structured facility. 0.51 of 3.
- Not physical 31%
- No robot shown 27%
- In a purpose-built cell 32%
- In a structured facility 9%
Anthropic's rating, not this site's estimate: Claude Opus 5, searching the web, rated each physical O*NET task by the kind of setting in which a robot it could cite (deployed, sold or demonstrated) does most of the task, weighted by its own estimate of each task's share of the time (What work can robots do?, September 30, 2026, data CC BY 4.0; every job ranked). A robot shown somewhere is not a robot in your building: cost, setup and safety decide that. The share within reach on this page still counts no body work. Weighted by the people in each occupation; each job's page names the robot behind each rated task.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index. The 16 largest jobs hold 97% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 260 | 48% | 257,963 | $60K |
| Office Clerks, General | 90 | 56% | 105,768 | $49K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 40 | 88% | 73,299 | $49K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 70 | 46% | 67,558 | $72K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 120 | 27% | 66,394 | $45K |
| General and Operations Managers | 70 | 45% | 65,520 | $77K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 50 | 53% | 55,224 | $39K |
| Industrial Production Managers | 40 | 51% | 42,516 | $91K |
| Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders | 180 | 11% | 41,184 | $47K |
| Accountants and Auditors | 40 | 45% | 37,524 | $68K |
| Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers | 880 | 2% | 36,608 | $38K |
| Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 130 | 11% | 30,826 | $57K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 2 smaller jobs (80 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 75% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers61,013 hours100% of the task within reach
- Plan and develop new products and production processes.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers56,491 hours70% of the task within reach
- Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers41,350 hours100% of the task within reach
- Estimate the costs of requested products or services such as custom footwear or footwear repair, and receive payment from customers.Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers37,121 hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers30,707 hours100% of the task within reach
- Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers25,504 hours100% of the task within reach
- Compute, record, and proofread data and other information, such as records or reports.Office Clerks, General22,543 hours100% of the task within reach
- Write test or inspection reports describing results, recommendations, or needed repairs.Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers21,251 hours100% of the task within reach
- Design new equipment to aid in the repair or maintenance of machines, mechanical equipment, or building structures.Maintenance and Repair Workers, General19,647 hours70% of the task within reach
- Maintain operations data, such as time, production, and cost records, and prepare management reports of production results.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers17,473 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have. Or choose the whole industry: every occupation BLS publishes for it with task data, at its nationwide headcount, the sector report ($249 for the full report, or included in Pro).
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five. Now is projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works
Questions about this industry
- How much of the work in Leather and Hide Tanning and Finishing is within reach of AI now?
- An estimated 19% of the paid hours in Leather and Hide Tanning and Finishing are within reach of AI models now and 21% by the end of 2028, on METR's long-run pace at four in five (20% to 21% across the three paces the site shows). Within reach means a model could finish work that long at that reliability. It is not a forecast of jobs lost or of savings.
- Which jobs in Leather and Hide Tanning and Finishing carry the most hours within reach?
- By hours within reach now (projected from METR's April 2026 measurement and Epoch's November 2026 index): First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (260 people, 48% of their time, about 257,962 hours a year); Office Clerks, General (90 people, 56% of their time, about 105,768 hours a year); and Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks (40 people, 88% of their time, about 73,299 hours a year).
- Which tasks in Leather and Hide Tanning and Finishing carry the most hours within reach by the end of 2028?
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals (First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, about 61,013 hours a year); Plan and develop new products and production processes (First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, about 56,491 hours a year); and Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs (First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, about 41,350 hours a year).
- What would people working in Leather and Hide Tanning and Finishing learn first?
- Among the 1,220 people in jobs reviewed task by task, the skills most often among the first two things to learn on their job's page are the hands-on craft (700 people); reviewing work you did not do yourself (620 people); and briefing a model and checking its drafts (410 people). By the end of 2028 on the long-run pace at four in five, about 63% of their working time stays with people, 28% becomes checking a model's work and 8% can be handed over with lighter checks. It says which parts of the work change, never whether anyone keeps a job.
- How is this estimated?
- BLS counts the people in each occupation in Leather and Hide Tanning and Finishing (May 2025); each occupation's share of working time within reach comes from its O*NET tasks, each with an estimated length checked against GDPval, and METR's measurements of how long a task the best AI models can finish, carried forward to the date from the latest, Claude Mythos Preview (early) in April 2026. The industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Task data covers 75% of its people, and 38% are in occupations reviewed task by task. Data checked November 10, 2026.
Embed these figures on your site
A small card with the share of working time within reach now and at the end of 2027, 2028 and 2030, the date and a link back. Free under CC BY 4.0; the card carries the credit.