Industry group, 3333
Commercial and Service Industry Machinery Manufacturing
86,220 people work in this industry in the US, at mean pay of $81,050 a year (BLS, May 2025). What follows is how much of their working time the best AI models could finish, when, and in which jobs and tasks. Estimates.
of the paid hours. Estimate.
a year: 36 million hours at what they cost. Not a forecast of savings.
- 47%
- 16%
- 37%
of the paid hours are within reach now in tasks people already bring to Claude. Another 17% is within reach in tasks not yet seen there.
Across the US: 22% within reach now and 37% by the end of 2028, on the long-run pace at four in five.
Share of the paid hours within reach, now to 2030
What each choice means: , , , , . Every pace starts from .
How far this has come
With GPT-4, measured in March 2023, 0% of this industry's paid hours were within reach at . With Claude 3.7 Sonnet, measured in February 2025, 1%. With Claude Mythos Preview (early), measured in April 2026, 18%. Today's estimate: 21%.
A backcast: today's task data with the best model METR had measured by each date. It shows how fast the models have moved, not what anyone forecast at the time.
Where the hours are
Jobs by hours within reach now. The 40 largest jobs hold 77% of the people.
| People | Pay here | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Assemblers | 12,400 | 10% | 2.7 million | $47K |
| Shipping, Receiving, and Inventory Clerks | 1,850 | 53% | 2 million | $47K |
| Customer Service Representatives | 1,480 | 64% | 2 million | $52K |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 2,530 | 36% | 1.9 million | $80K |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | 2,740 | 32% | 1.8 million | $77K |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 1,050 | 78% | 1.7 million | $56K |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,550 | 23% | 1.2 million | $163K |
| Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks | 860 | 63% | 1.1 million | $61K |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,000 | 54% | 1.1 million | $49K |
| Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers | 2,140 | 24% | 1.1 million | $53K |
| Software Developers | 3,650 | 14% | 1 million | $107K |
| Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 3,010 | 16% | 1 million | $51K |
People: BLS counts for this industry, May 2025. Pay here: the median paid for the job in this industry, else its mean, else the national median. 134 smaller jobs (19,310 people) count in every total but are not listed. Task data covers 96% of the industry's people; the rest are in BLS "all other" groups with no task list, or in counts BLS does not publish.
The tasks with the most hours within reach by the end of 2028
Across the whole industry, on the chosen pace and reliability.
- Review work orders and blueprints to ensure work is performed according to specifications.Team Assemblers1.1 million hours50% of the task within reach
- Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.Software Developers1 million hours100% of the task within reach
- Complete production reports to communicate team production level to management.Team Assemblers884,924 hours100% of the task within reach
- Determine work assignments and procedures.Team Assemblers792,072 hours50% of the task within reach
- Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.Software Developers705,404 hours70% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish sequence of operations to fabricate and assemble parts or products and to promote efficient utilization.Industrial Engineers700,985 hours99% of the task within reach
- Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.Software Developers657,637 hours79% of the task within reach
- Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers642,872 hours100% of the task within reach
- Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.Software Developers583,660 hours38% of the task within reach
- Monitor market conditions, product innovations, and competitors' products, prices, and sales.Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products574,915 hours100% of the task within reach
Scan a typical company in this industry
The industry's largest jobs, in the proportions BLS counts across the whole industry, at the pay it pays, run through the company scan. A starting point before you have a roster, or a benchmark for the one you have.
Next to this industry
Within reach now and by the end of 2028, long-run pace, four in five.
How it is built: BLS counts the people in each job in this industry; each job's tasks and their lengths give its share within reach at a date; the industry's share is those shares weighted by people. Value is pay times 1.43 for benefits and payroll costs. Seen in Claude use splits today's share by whether Anthropic saw people bring each task to Claude in 2025; other AI tools are not counted. How it works